David Brown 23/01/2015 07:11

“I have pasted below contents of a slide from a presentation I give on Diseases of Developing Countries. The bottom line, based on well-researched data from the OECD, is that poverty, disease AND global warming are all best ameliorated by economic growth. So David's view is supported by the OECD - who produced this report under commission from the IPCC: we should avoid policies that damage global growth.” 
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Economic growth will have the largest impact:

3x increase in world per capita income in past 50 years (in real terms)

If continues, by 2100 world per capita income will be x9 year 2000

The average person in the world will be 3 times wealthier than the average person in Britain today

OECD predicts average per capita income between 3x and 20x by 2100.
Worst case ... average globally the same as Britain today
Best case ... average globally is x7 wealthier

“Medium” scenario (SSP2) is x13 i.e. x4 wealthier global average than Britain today

IPCC projections for greenhouse gas emission show they reduce as wealth increases
Lowest emissions modeled came out at x16 today’s wealth - close to OECD prediction of x13 - and IPCC says that will avert climate change

Highest emissions come from lowest economic growth, x3

Conclusion: the solution to diseases, poverty, climate change is rapid economic development...

...which is underway now as the Third Industrial Revolution accelerates.

David Fuller's view

This conclusion above is an extremely important point, which David Brown contributed in an on site email following my comments in response to the article: Matt Ridley: My life as a climate lukewarmer, posted on 22^nd January, third item down. 

David Brown will be speaking on the Third Industrial Revolution at the next Markets Now seminar on 23^rd February.  That will be a fascinating topic.