“Isn't it time to buy the Euro? It looks so oversold.”

David Fuller's view

Thanks for bring this up, and yes, it does look at least temporarily oversold on this daily chart, having fallen more steeply since mid-December.

It has also taken out the two previous lows in June 2010 and July 2012, as you can see on this 5-year weekly chart.  However, this 20-year monthly chart shows that it was once significantly lower between 4Q 2000 and 1Q 2002.  Therefore, if you want to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar, I would either wait until it is even lower or only nibble on weakness.  The ECB would probably be happy to see further weakness.

I also have a longer-term concern.  While I expect the US Dollar to be around over the next 20 years plus, I am not so sure about the Euro.