(Bloomberg) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande are holding emergency talks in Moscow with Vladimir Putin in a last-ditch effort to stave off a deeper confrontation with the Russian leader over Ukraine.

Merkel and Hollande, whose arrival in the snowy Russian capital as darkness fell was shown live on TV, were whisked off to meet Putin behind closed doors at the Kremlin. The two leaders will push him to implement the Minsk cease-fire agreement from last September, two people familiar with the matter said.

Merkel is pessimistic about Putin’s willingness to defuse the crisis and plans to deliver the message that Russia faces tougher actions unless he agrees to help end the escalating violence in Ukraine, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified discussing government strategy.

“As the German chancellor, I would never go behind the back of another country, in this case Ukraine, and start questioning its territorial integrity -- that is completely ruled out,” Merkel told reporters earlier in Berlin. “We don’t know if we’ll be successful today or if further talks will be needed.”

Pessimism prevails on all sides. Merkel sees little chance of getting Putin to change his mind; officials in the Obama administration say there’s little anyone can do to stop pro-Russian separatists from seizing more territory; and in Moscow, policy makers are increasingly coming to the view that the war-torn Donetsk and Luhansk regions will eventually cede from Ukraine.

Hanging over the talks is the prospect of deeper sanctions on Russia, an economic collapse in Ukraine and the risk that the conflict descends into a proxy war. While Merkel has rejected arming the Ukrainian army and President Barack Obama is said to be skeptical, some officials and diplomats in Washington are openly discussing the idea.

“The failure of this mission will bring the whole situation closer to a very dangerous crossroads,” Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Moscow-based Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, said by phone from Munich. “One direction away from this crossroads will lead to the armament of Ukrainian armed forces by the U.S., which would bring the whole conflict to a much higher level of escalation.”

David Fuller's view

I can understand why Merkel and Hollande want this meeting with Putin, even if they have little expectation of a successful outcome.  This remains a dangerous situation for all of Europe, and obviously not least for Ukraine, where the body count continues to rise. 

Having come from East Germany, Merkel will have some firsthand knowledge of the KGB, and to quote Putin himself: “There is no such thing as ex-KGB.”  Hopefully, she and Hollande are now in no doubt that Putin has not the slightest hesitation in telling whatever lies suit his purpose.

Obama has said that he is “sceptical” about arming Ukraine.  That just makes it easier for Putin to seize Donetsk and Luhansk, and why should he stop there?  The only thing Putin respects is power and a stronger Ukraine would increase the cost of his cynical invasion.  That might embolden the Russians who would like to end Putin’s dictatorship.