David Fuller's view

The Dollar Index has surged ahead again this week, creating a stronger headwind for US exporters.  This is occurring in anticipation of higher short-term interest rates commencing between June and September.  A move back below 94 would be required to confirm a significant loss of upside momentum and it would probably take Fed intervention to achieve this. 

The Euro has slumped again this week, creating a stronger tailwind for EU exporters.  This is occurring in anticipation of ECB QE of €60bn per month, which Mario Draghi says will continue until at least end-September 2016.  The psychological level of parity with the US Dollar is now within reach. 

Small weekly downside key reversals have checked upward progress for the DJIA, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000.  New closing highs are now required to reaffirm uptrends and offset near-term scope for temporary mean reversion towards the 200-day (40-week) MAs.  DJ Utilities rallied to their most overextended level in January and have now seen their biggest pullback for over five years.  An upward dynamic is required to indicate renewed demand.