(Bloomberg) -- The world has never been so awash in sugar.

Just as cane harvests expand in India and Thailand, farmers in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, are ramping up exports to take advantage of a tumble in the exchange rate that has swelled their profit margins. And crops that were hurt by drought last year have been revived by rain. Global output is set to exceed demand for a fifth straight year, leaving the biggest stockpiles on record, the International Sugar Organization said.

All of that sugar signals global prices, already down 50 percent in three years, are poised to fall further, cutting costs for buyers like Krispy Kreme Donuts Inc. and Mondelez International Inc., the maker of Cadbury chocolates and Oreos. New York sugar futures probably will slide 6.2 percent by July to 12.02 cents a pound, the lowest since January 2009, a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts showed.

“The fundamentals are absolutely bearish,” said Donald Selkin, who helps manage about $3 billion of assets as chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York. “Supplies are very extensive. The good growing season and the weak currency in Brazil are also making their exports more attractive.”

David Fuller's view

This is a 4-year bear market and counting for sugar.  It is currently somewhat overextended relative to the 200-day (40-week) MA, so susceptible to temporary mean reversion. 

Nevertheless, with supply being the key factor for any commodity, I think it will require a major crop disruption to break this bear market over the next twelve months. 

I am surprised that the demand for sugar is still rising at a strong rate, as you will see on these historic graphs for sugar, including some projections of future consumption.  In developed countries, food suppliers remain under government and also consumer pressure to reduce the sugar content of processed foods for health reasons.  However, this shows no sign of affecting global demand for sugar.