David Fuller's view

The CRB Commodity Index (daily & weekly) has continued to range higher since it recorded a low on 18^th March with an upside key day reversal (note: if you do not know what that is, treat yourself to The Chart Seminar).  CRB is now testing psychological resistance from the February highs, but a close back beneath the last low near 220 would be required to confirm more than a brief hesitation near the 230 region.  Moreover, the weekly chart shows base formation development in the region of the important 2009 trough.

Brent Crude oil (daily & weekly) is approaching initial resistance above $70.  Moreover, any move above that level is likely to trigger the release of reserves, not least from within the USA.  Production would also increase with the price, capping upside scope in the $90 to $100 region, which is unlikely to be exceeded without severe supply disruptions caused by military conflict.    

The Dollar Index (daily & weekly) has fallen back to the first area of potential support commencing at 95.  It is also temporarily overextended at this level.  However, an upward dynamic is required to indicate more than brief support in this region.  Meanwhile, momentum buying and speculation ahead of an eventual Fed rate hike drove the dollar higher and that position has been partially unwound recently.  If the Fed intervened to check the dollar’s rally, as I have maintained, it will be in no hurry to repurchase those sales.