“Hello David, You have commented on a number of occasions that "the Fed has to get in a couple of rate rises before the Presidential election". Why does the Fed have to do this and does it usually happen prior to the election? Sorry if I'm displaying ignorance here...”

David Fuller's view

No problem; others may have the same question.   It is not imperative for the Fed to raise rates at this time but it is hoping that it can gradually move towards a normalisation of monetary policy as the US economy recovers.  The alternative is a risk of having to raise rates more quickly if it holds off for too long.  Meanwhile, GDP recovery remains patchy, evidenced by 1Q 2015 results and ongoing concerns about the Dollar’s strength, although it has now eased somewhat.  Assuming stronger GDP figures in 2Q, I think the Fed will commence quarter-point hikes in September and probably again in December.  After 1Q 2016 the Presidential Election cycle will be in full swing and the Fed usually prefers not to adjust monetary policy during the heat of the campaign.