Pound Mimics Yen as Losses Mount in Triple-Dip Peril
Yields on 10-year gilts fell as low as 1.41 percent in July, before ending last week at 2.06 percent. The rate on similar maturity Spanish bonds has fallen to 5.17 percent from 7.75 percent in that period.
Draghi said the worst of the financial upheaval is over on Jan. 22, and the “darkest clouds” have lifted due to decisive policy steps last year, such as pledging to backstop debt markets and government measures to cut deficits.
“We are seeing some unwinding of all the euro-negative trades, just because there's a better perception of the crisis management,” Carlos Galvis, a money manager who oversees the equivalent of $8.1 billion at Carmignac Gestion in Paris, said in a Jan. 24 phone interview. “Sterling benefited quite significantly from those flows last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see the euro move higher against the pound as that unwinds.”
Foreign investors, including those from Britain, are snapping up European assets they abandoned through the debt crisis this year to harvest higher euro-area bond yields.
Eoin Treacy's view The UK demonstrated in 2008 just how
much it was willing to allow the Pound to fall in order to cushion the domestic
economy from the effects of the financial crisis. Since early 2009 the currency
has been largely rangebound against the US Dollar and one can imagine that both
the Bank of England and the government would like it to stay that way. It is
currently pulling back from the upper side of this congestion area. A clear
upward dynamic would now be required to question medium-term scope for additional
lower to lateral ranging.
The
Pound has been even weaker against the Euro
of late. The cross rate encountered resistance near €1.30 in July and has
held a progression of lower rally highs since. The pace of the decline has picked
up over the last few weeks and is becoming increasingly overextended. However,
a clear upward dynamic would be required to question momentum beyond a brief
pause.
The
performance of the FTSE-100 has been particularly
impressive this month as it broke successfully out of the two-year trading range,
helped by the weakness of the Pound and led by the financial sector. A considerable
number of the UK's largest companies are hitting new 3-year to all-time highs
not least Autonomies such as Reckitt Benckiser,
Unilever, SAB
Miller and Rolls Royce. Breakouts from
relatively lengthy ranges can be quite powerful, not least when aided by a weak
currency. However, as prices become increasingly more overextended relative
to the 200-day MA, the first clear downward dynamics will warn that rallies
are losing momentum prior to corrections . The performance of the UK's services
sector is also particularly impressive. (Also see Comment of the Day on September
26th).
The
Euro has gone from one of the weakest
to one of the strongest currencies since the beginning of the month as its short
covering rally continues. This has aided perceptions of upside potential among
the region's stock markets and they continue to extend their advances led by
the banking sector. As the Euro extends its advance the competitiveness of the
region's export sector may be pressured. Since the vast majority of the Eurozone's
banks generate most of their revenue from inside the zone they should be comparatively
insulated from any effect of a stronger Euro and may in fact be some of the
stronger beneficiaries. Spain's BBVA
and Banco BPI, France's Credit
Agricole, Soc Gen and BNP
Paribas and Italy's Mediobanca and
Unicredito Italiano have posted some of
the most impressive rallies in the banking sector to date.
The
Euro had been trending lower against the Swedish
Krone since 2009 but has rallied since August to test the medium-term progression
of lower rally highs and the region of the 200-day MA. A sustained move above
SEK8.8 would challenge the consistency of the downtrend and suggest a return
to medium-term Euro strength. In the financial sector, Swedbank,
following a sharp draw down last week from the SEK140 area, has recouped almost
the entire decline and a sustained move below SEK130 would be required to question
medium-term scope for additional upside. In the construction machinery sector
Atlas Copco completed a more than two-year
range at the end of last year and a sustained move below the 200-day MA would
be required to question medium-term scope for further upside.