David Fuller's view I mentioned in Wednesday's (last night's) Audio that the odds of my "best case" short-term scenario for gold - a spike to the $1300 to $1400 range, had deteriorated with the additional heavy selling pressure encountered by both stock markets and commodities. While the technical evidence is not yet conclusive as all four precious metals remain above their 200-day moving averages, it has deteriorated significantly in the last few days.

Palladium (weekly & daily), which has been this cycle's medium-term leader, accelerated well above the MA and has fallen very sharply this week. Short-term upside scope now appears limited to a period of right-hand top formation extension. The medium-term cycle leaders have characteristically peaked slightly before gold and the current sequence appears no different.

Platinum (weekly & daily) also appears to have peaked as it has seen a much bigger downward dynamic this week, to date, than any during any other correction since the 4Q 2008 lows.

Silver's picture (weekly & daily) looks more confusing, as is often the case, due to its frequently choppy price action. We do not have conclusive evidence that silver has reached a medium-term peak but it is unlikely to uncouple from the other precious metals.

Gold's price action (weekly & daily) has been the strongest recently and the only deterioration on this chart is this week's downward dynamic which is not yet dramatic.

Consequently, my hunch that gold may be peaking is most influenced by palladium's performance. Veteran subscribers will recall that it has paid to follow the leader in previous medium-term cycles for precious metals.

Why might gold not move higher as the hard currency, proven long-term store of wealth and recent relative strength? It still could as the technical case for a medium-term peak is far from conclusive at this stage and the other precious metals sometimes move more in line with industrial metals than gold. However, the last market standing seldom escapes unscathed when investors take fright, as we last saw in 2008. I see few reasons for a similar slump in this cycle and if the selling pressure in stock markets and commodities dries up in the short term, followed by rallies back above the 200-day MAs, then the odds of gold extending its uptrend sooner rather than later would improve.

In conclusion, I think gold is now less likely to get an additional and significant near-term run to the upside. Instead, it is more likely to test its rising MA. Nevertheless I remain a long-term bull for all the reasons previously mentioned. Unleveraged investors in bullion who agree with Fullermoney's bullish long-term forecast can take comfort in the fact that within the present secular uptrend, gold only moved significantly beneath its MA in 3Q 2008. In doing so it still fell less than other commodities or stock markets, and it also recovered more quickly.

In 2008, many investors feared a global depression, although this was never the Fullermoney view. In recent weeks there have been sufficient reasons to expect a substantial correction but I do not think that sentiment will deteriorate to the same extent this time. (See also Tuesday's stock market comments in the opening item.)