David Fuller's view Another update is appropriate now that gold (weekly & daily) has followed silver (weekly & daily) into new (numerical) high ground and this will include mention of my own tactics in two of these metals.

The period of seasonal outperformance for precious metals often closes between late March and May. This is not etched in granite but it may be prudent to assume that the sand for this medium-term upward leg is now mostly in the lower half of the hourglass.

Sliver, shown above, is the unquestioned leader of this current move so it should have predictive value in both directions. The cycle leaders usually peak first, if only by a day, and crowded trades usually produce the clearer reversal dynamic, when it occurs. The way this might pan out is that silver remains the strongest precious metal up until the day when it suddenly and clearly becomes the weakest.

That is clearly not happening today with silver reaching another new high as it approaches the next psychological barrier at $40. Widely followed markets can pause near psychological barriers because they are targets, in terms of both expectations and sometimes tactics. As silver reaches $40 a number of people interested in this metal will ponder the question: What next? That, combined with the possibility that some traders have placed sell orders near the round number target can shift the supply / demand balance sufficiently to cause a correction.

You can see this at both $20 and $30. A ranging pause either side of $40 might not mean much but a downward dynamic (big downside day) and or a break of the most recent higher reaction low at $36.50 would indicate a loss of momentum beyond a brief pause. We also know that silver is overextended relative to its rising 200-day moving average, so it will mean revert towards the MA in the not too distant future. This will be in the form of a scissors effect, with the MA continuing to rise as silver loses upside momentum and commences a correction.

I will not be part of the imminent psychological battle over silver's direction, having sold my last position too soon, but I am still long gold, shown above, via futures. The yellow metal is clearly not overextended relative to its MA but it has struggled to maintain initial moves to new highs in recent months, and it is also contending with a minor psychological barrier at $1450. Technically, gold should have done enough support building to hurdle this level and run to $1500, although some traders may need further convincing, given the choppy ranging previously seen. I will continue to give the upside the benefit of the doubt, and would not like to see a break in the last reaction low near $1410.

Tactically, I placed slightly in-the-money stops on my rollover gold futures longs today and I may increase this trade on evidence of a sustained breakout. Normally, I do not like to pay up for commodities but the possibility of an accelerated run is enticing. Stop Press: I did buy, see below.

Incidentally, the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (HUI) appears poised for an upward break and a move back beneath $500 would be required to delay significantly this prospect.

People seem to have forgotten that platinum (weekly & daily) is a precious metal. The resulting choppy ranging activity has been difficult to trade, unless one waited for sharp corrections before buying. I remain long because the Platinum / Gold Ratio is historically low and I am hoping that it is rediscovered as a catch-up play. I also have a slightly in-the-money stop on my latest position which is about half the size of my current gold longs.

Palladium (weekly & daily) has been a leading precious metal in recent years but not since it became very overextended relative to its MA and experienced a big weekly key reversal in late February. It has been pulled higher recently but the main influence now appears to be China's automobile industry rather than what silver and gold are doing.