Precious metals update: Gold breaks to the upside
Comment of the Day

September 14 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Precious metals update: Gold breaks to the upside

David Fuller's view Gold (monthly, weekly & daily) has remained very steady recently and today's surge to a new numerical high suggests that it may be resuming its secular uptrend having completed a consolidation near its May-June highs. One note of caution is that this is the seventh consecutive week during which the price of gold has risen, creating a short-term overbought condition. More importantly, the overall uptrend remains intact against all currencies. Gold would now require a close beneath $1235 to question near-term scope for additional gains. September/October has often marked the beginning of a seasonally bullish phase for gold, lasting six months on average. However, the big upside moves in recent years have commenced every other year - 9/2005, 9/2007 and 9/2009, as we have mentioned on numerous occasions.

Silver (monthly, weekly & daily) has broken up out of its range for the last year and also crossed the psychological $20 level. This is a potentially significant development and if it can maintain this move there is more than enough underlying trading to support higher levels over the medium term.

Palladium (monthly, weekly & daily) led the 2009 and early-2010 recovery before accelerating to a medium-term peak and encountering resistance near the 2008 highs. The subsequent shakeout appears to have been no more than a mean reversion relative to the rising 200-day moving average and the build up of underlying support in recent months appears more than sufficient to sustain a challenge of former peaks.

Platinum (monthly, weekly & daily) has been the laggard in recent months but it is currently testing the upper side of the range since late May. A sustained break above $1600 would conform to recent strength shown by other precious metals and signal scope for a test of the April-May highs. Conversely, a break beneath $1500 which persisted beyond two or three days would reverse the current favourable outlook. This latter possibility seems unlikely given the overall bullishness of the sector.

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