Restaurants and Food Processors
Eoin Treacy's view Grain prices continue to
accelerate higher amid weather concerns in the key pollination period for corn
in particular. At least in part as a result, feeder
cattle prices have dropped abruptly, having broken below the 200-day MA
for the first time since 2009 three weeks ago. Such volatility in basic commodity
prices is having a mixed effect on restaurants and food processers. One trend
is clear however. Companies with a truly global presence are outperforming by
a considerable margin. This may possibly be explained by the fact they have
a global supply chain as well as customer network so country specific concerns
may be less of a factor. Restaurants with a solid growth trajectory are also
trending rather consistently.
McDonalds
now yields more than 3% and remains an S&P500 US dividend aristocrat. The
share experienced its largest decline in more than three years between January
and early June. While this is an inconsistency, the share rallied impressively
last week and a sustained move below the June lows would be required to question
potential for some additional upside. A move to new highs will be required to
indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance.
Yum
Brands (1.7%) does not have the same long record of dividend increases as
McDonalds but has been increasing its pay-out on consecutive years for at least
the last eight years. The share also experienced a deeper pullback since its
peak in April and has returned to the region of the 200-day MA where it found
at least short-term support. A sustained move below $60 would be required to
question potential for additional upside.
Texas
Roadhouse, Panera Bread, Ruth's
Chris Steakhouse and Chipotle Mexican
Grill have also returned to test their respective 200-day MAs and sustained
moves below them would be required to question medium-term demand dominance.
Cracker
Barrel Old Country Store continues to extend its uptrend and a break in
the short-term progression of higher reaction lows would be required to signal
mean reversion is underway.
Tyson
Foods and Sanderson Farms have fallen
aggressively as grain prices rose and clear upward dynamics will be required
stem the decline. Smithfield Foods has
returned to the lower side of its 18-month range and a clear upward dynamic
is also needed here to check supply dominance.
ADM
has been largely rangebound since early 2009 and is currently falling towards
the lower boundary. It will need to find support in the region of $25 to confirm
support at the 2011 lows. Bunge has also
been mostly rangebound. It retested the lower boundary in early June and has
held a progression of higher reaction lows since. A sustained move below $60
would now be required to question potential for some additional higher to lateral
ranging.