Review of energy related companies
Comment of the Day

December 06 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Review of energy related companies

Eoin Treacy's view There is a high degree of commonality evident in the energy sector with commodities and related shares all showing signs of increased investor interest. Uranium has broken out of its base. Coal is testing the April high and even natural gas has rallied from its lows. We have focused of late on uranium shares, many of which are breaking out of their bases but I thought that today it may be instructive to review some other energy shares.

Repsol found support in the region of the 200-day MA last week and would need to sustain a move below it to question potential for additional upside.

Occidental Petroleum broke out of a yearlong range last week and a clear downward dynamic would be required to check potential for some additional upside.

Hess Corp broke out its base a month ago and is now pulling away from the $70 area. A drop back into the base would be required to check upside potential.

Chevron Corp, Conoco Philips and Murphy Oil share a similar pattern. They have consolidated briefly above yearlong ranges and are now pushing on to new recovery highs. Sustained moves below their respective 200-day MAs would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Conoco Philips has the more attractive yield at 3.42%.

Marathon Oil remains within an 18-month range but has trended gradually higher this year and would need to break the progression of higher reaction lows to question scope for a successful upward break. (Also see Comment of the Day on October 14th).

Halliburton, Schlumberger and National Oilwell Varco rallied impressively over the last few months and are presently somewhat overbought. Baker Hughes hit a new recovery high last week and a sustained move below $50 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Technip found support in the region of the 200-day MA from June and is now testing the 2007 peak near €70. A sustained move below €60 would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Acergy consolidated above the April high for a month and reasserted the medium-term uptrend last week.

Petrofac remains in a consistent uptrend and would need to sustain a move below the 200-day MA to question upside potential. Saipem has a relatively similar pattern. China Oilfield Services reasserted its medium-term uptrend in October and remains in a consistent advance. A break of the progression of higher reaction lows, with a fall below HK$13, would be required to question current potential for further upside. (Also see Comment of the Day on February 22nd).

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