Rio would be first in line to buy should Ivanhoe put itself up for sale
Comment of the Day

January 08 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Rio would be first in line to buy should Ivanhoe put itself up for sale

This article by Sonali Paul and Michael Erman for Reuters may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Rio Tinto (RIO.AX), the mining giant with a minority interest in a huge, undeveloped copper-gold deposit in Mongolia, is likely to be at the front of a long line of potential bidders should its partner, Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.TO), put itself up for sale.

Ivanhoe -- which owns one of the world's biggest copper lodes, the Oyu Tolgoi project in Mongolia -- said on Wednesday it had hired bankers to consider ways to boost the group's value, sparking speculation that the $6.8 billion company could be up for sale.

Rio (RIO.L) owns 19.7% of Ivanhoe and has long coveted the Oyu Tolgoi project. Rio Chief Executive Tom Albanese has called the Mongolian project one of the "most attractive undeveloped copper-gold projects in the world."

But it is likely to run into stiff competition from other big copper miners including BHP Billiton (BHP.AX)(BLT.L), Xstrata (XTA.L) and Anglo American (AAL.L), investors said. Investment bankers also pointed to strong interest from resource-hungry China, as Oyu Tolgoi is located just 80 km (50 miles) from its border.

"It's very rare that these types of projects become available," said Tim Schroeders, a portfolio manager at Pengana Capital.

"If it becomes public that Ivanhoe are sellers, everyone's going to be obliged to have a look and see, because it's just not going to come around again."

Eoin Treacy's view Ivanhoe has been one of the better performing mining shares since it began to become clear that it would get the permissioning it needed to go ahead with the Oyu Tolgoi mine. (Also see Comment of the Day on October 7th). The share remains in a consistent uptrend as it approaches its 2007 high and a sustained move below C$13 would be required to question scope for further upside. The company offers access to a world class resource, so increased investor interest in the current environment is probably justified but if it becomes a takeover candidate prices could move substantially higher.

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