Rob McEwen interviewed by The Gold Report
Comment of the Day

August 22 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Rob McEwen interviewed by The Gold Report

My thanks to a subscriber for this interesting interview. Here is a sample:
TGR: Are there any other topics you've been thinking about that might interests our readers?

RM: Right now we are looking at debt: the U.S. debt ceiling debate and the debt of sovereign states in Europe. I think any correction should be used as a time to accumulate.

The quiet summer is a good time to stake out the juniors and intermediates and take positions. We've seen periods like this where physical gold and the gold shares separate in terms of performance. In September 1979, which was just before the top in the gold price, gold went from $200 to $400/oz. in the space of a little over four months, but the gold stocks didn't follow. It was as if the market didn't believe the price of gold would hold up there. It wasn't until September 1980 that gold stocks reached their highs. I believe that the market had to see the impact of the higher gold price on the cash flow and earnings before they would buy the stocks.

I think we're in that period right now. I would argue that we are starting to see the seniors move-Barrick has been moving today with the gold price. These are incredible cash-flow generators right now. They are going to have to do something with their earnings, dividend them out or up their yields.

They also are going to look for growth. Barrick surprised everyone by buying a copper project, with cash. That was a curveball. I think they went into copper believing it was a better cash flow and cheaper than buying a gold property. Barrick is diversifying because they see opportunities. The seniors are doing deals to build the size of their companies, and that's positive for the intermediates and the juniors. The seniors have been reaching right over the intermediates into the junior-producer/junior-explorer side. The longer this gap exists, the more attractive the juniors and intermediates will become.

David Fuller's view This is an informative interview because Rob McEwen is certainly an experienced and very successful player in the gold and silver mining industry. Much more important than the headline and opening targets, which are obviously conjecture, are his recollections on the relative performance of miners compared to bullion.

I remember being pleasantly surprised in seeing leading gold miners move to new highs following bullion's climactic peak in January 1980, and I would not be surprised to see it happen again in this cycle.

Meanwhile, the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (monthly & weekly) remains very steady in its range despite the recent and fierce headwind from global stock markets.

Back to top