David Fuller's view I have known Robin Griffiths (RG) since the late 1970s. He is a distinguished technical strategist who is also no stranger to the fundamental economic background. Although I have only seen RG's work on occasion, my impression has been that his big picture views coincided with Fullermoney's more often than not, although often for somewhat different reasons. For instance, much of RG's work is based on his detailed study of cycles; a subject which I know to be of considerable interest to some subscribers.

Whilst I had seen the PDF for RG's PowerPoint presentation before hearing him on the 31st, his explanation inevitably added value. I have reproduced my notes below and also commented on a number of RG's points.

Before the presentation commenced it was mentioned that I was still bullish. RG said that he was too, for a short while, but had already sold most of his equity holdings, for regulatory reasons, as they would be advising Cazenove's private clients to lighten positions as April progressed, before what he expects to be a significant downturn commencing in May.

We all know the adage: "Sell in May and go away", as seasonal factors become less historically favourable. However this did not concern Fullermoney last year, as stock markets were rising from panic lows, and I am reluctant to prejudge the technical action this year. Nevertheless, most stock markets were unusually strong last month and if this trend continues throughout April, we should expect some corrective action to follow. That aside, I prefer to monitor the technical action rather than prejudge trend activity which remains consistent with a cyclical bull market.

Slides 1-3: RG commenced by mentioning that maps of the world have historically been presented with the main superpower in the centre - thus the UK in the first map emphasising the British Empire's importance during the 19th century, the USA during the 20th century (second slide) and the third map with China and India in the centre for the 21st century.

Fullermoney certainly agrees that China and India are the emerging powers, returning to their earlier dominance last seen in the 17th century. We also think that Brazil could become an economic superpower in this century, subject to governance. RG holds the same view of Brazil. I do not recall if Russia was mentioned during the presentation but Fullermoney remains less interested in this BRIC, due to governance, not least regarding the rights of minority shareholders.

Slides 4-9: RG maintains that we are 10 years into a 20-year secular correction (slide 4). This coincides with Fullermoney's frequent comments regarding a rolling, secular valuation contraction, not dissimilar to what Wall Street experienced from 1966-1982. You can see this and earlier secular trends on the excellent 5th slide. RG expects an eventual S&P 500 yield of 7%, with many leading shares showing single-figure multiples. He also thinks the actual bear market low for the Index could be in 2012.

Fullermoney is less bearish. I have often mentioned that the S&P reached a yield of 6.21 in 2Q 1982, the third highest level in US history, achieved with the help of high interest rates. I do not see a return to that level without high interest rates. Also, I think the depression-discounting sell-off from October 2008 to March 2009 probably marked the nominal low for a number of years.

RG cited slide 6 as evidence for a western double-dip "certainty" in 2011-2012. I see few certainties in markets but plenty of surprises. A lot depends on one's answer to a question that I have asked before: Do two severe bear markets within a decade make it more or less likely that another one will occur anytime soon? I think it makes a third bear market and a lower low less likely. Such an event in the next year or two would probably require massive policy blunders, including premature hikes in interest rates, in my view.

Meanwhile, policy blunders by governments do occur and there is no shortage of debt-related problems among OECD counties in addition to serious trade imbalances on a global basis. However I am impressed by the way most multinational corporations have responded to the economic crisis. Today, western investors are overweight in bonds and underweight in equities, in my view.

RG also cited the US election cycle in his expectation for a 2011-2012 double-dip. Veteran subscribers may recall Fullermoney's discussions of the election cycle in previous decades. Basically, pump priming has often boosted stock markets in third and fourth years of a presidential election cycle, followed by monetary retrenchment in the first two years of the next cycle. However, the second half of 2007, not to mention the election year of 2008, certainly deviated from this pattern and there has been record pump priming during the Obama presidency to date.

Slides: 10-14: The historic returns cause RG to conclude that we could see a mid-April stock market peak this year. Slide 11 demonstrates that: the bigger the rise, the harder they fall. Slide 12 was a discussion of market randomness and inefficiency. In expecting a double-dip new low in 2011-2012, RG would regard that as a great buying opportunity. He also thinks this secular valuation contraction will present its equivalent to 1982's best valuations, at some point between 2016 and 2020.

The main difference of opinion here, to emphasise the point, is that Fullermoney thinks the equivalent of 1974's stock market trough for US equities during the last valuation contraction, actually occurred in 2009.

Slides 15-18: RG regards demographics as extremely important. He said that India and Brazil have the best demographics. In contrast China and most western countries compare unfavourably. He much prefers India to China. In 2050, he expects the average Indian to be richer than his western equivalent. Within Europe, he says demographics are excellent for Poland and Turkey.

I agree with Eoin's comments on demographics stated yesterday, accompanying a very interesting report on Japan. I would describe demographics as a double-edged sword. Yes, India has more young people than any other country. However, they are only productive developers of the economy if educated and employed mainly in the private sector. This is an enormous challenge for India. If it fails and too many young people remain illiterate and underemployed, they become a liability to economic stability and growth.

India and China remain my favourite stock markets for the very long term, for the very different reasons previously discussed at length over the last eight years. During that period India has been the better stock market performer but I think this has more to do with supply than demographics.

Slides 19-21: These deal with Elliot Wave, which some analysts love, but Fullermoney regards as too theoretical and subjective to be of interest. To each is own. RG thinks western stock markets are approaching 'D' on slide 20. He says that 'W' can sometimes be higher and I believe he said 'Z=A' could be in October 2011.

If we are approaching a major top ('D' in the slide), Fullermoney would expect more churning volatility as bulls and bears fought it out. When we see this, we will turn much more cautious and would want to lighten positions considerably as an extended top became apparent ('W' in slide 20). Also, some tops occur in the form of accelerated spikes. High-performance Fullermoney themes are candidates and that would be a signal to lighten or at least deploy trailing stops.

RG felt that India, and possibly China and Brazil are in the 'X' to 'Y' phase shown on slide 21. His Sensex Index estimate for 'Y' was 24,000.

Slide 22-30: Commencing in 1300, this first slide is fascinating and self explanatory. He summarised slide 23 with the wonderful comment: "If you tell your wife that she looks like the first day of spring, or the last day of winter…you get a different response." RG's interesting statistic on the UK (slide 24) is that only 20% of the FTSE 100 companies come from the UK. This as good news for ISA investors as they are not dependent on UK domestic companies for performance. RG was not enthusiastic about a much advertised new China fund, not least because only 98% of your money would be invested, with the other 2% going to the manager.

RG likes gold and mentioned three trackers: PHAU LN, where HSBC holds the gold (also listed elsewhere), Lyxor, formerly backed by Soc Gen but I think this is now Gold Bullion Securities run by the World Gold Council and backed by physical gold. I believe he also referred to PowerShares DB Gold Fund (DGL US), backed by Deutsche Bank, which he pointed out the German government would always support, if necessary. There is also Gold Bullion Securities in $ (GBS LN) and £ (GBSS LN). Both are ETFs and gold is held in HSBC's accredited vault.

On US 30-year Treasury yields, he thinks there will be a temporary decline if the economy cracks in 2011-2012, but added that he would "go with" an upward break in yields. He said that given funding requirements the US government may eventually require banks and pension funds to hold government bonds, whether they wish to or not.

I will send this summary to Robin Griffiths, to make sure that I have represented his views accurately, and will post any corrections if I have not.