"It is always darkest just before the dawn". Just as we give up hope there will appear the first cautious flecks of light, then slowly the outlook will brighten. This improvement is welcome but should not be greeted too enthusiastically.

Markets are now in a downtrend and this will in fact last until October. However the setback will not go in a straight line, but rather in moves of two steps down and one step up. There will therefore be rallies.

There should, in fact, be one really strong and sustainable rally lasting between four and six weeks. During this period being short will be painful, but going long is also not recommended.

In an average year the market rises until late May, when we sell and go away. There is a mid-summer rally that starts in July and goes into August. Then the wobbles start and September is reliably the worst month. The actual low comes in October, but this month usually ends with the start of a strong rebound.

This average pattern can get slightly bent out of shape and this year it became obvious that the rise was not going to last until late May. In practice, the 19th of April marked the peak of what was an exhausted move. As the fall started earlier than usual, the mid-summer rally will also probably begin a bit early.

David Fuller's view Robin Griffiths is no stranger to veteran Fullermoney Subscribers. His last review, published by Cazenove, was posted in Fullermoney on 13th April. I commend it to all new subscribers, in case you missed it. Robin is a born communicator, applies a disciplined technical approach to global markets and understands the background fundamentals.

I certainly commend this latest report to all subscribers, not least for its clarity. Robin often describes his work as a roadmap, influenced by cycles and seasonal factors. I would treat it as an approximation of what may happen and encourage every subscriber to follow the individual chart action of leading instruments, for evidence of confirmation or divergence from the script.

Basically, Robin feels we are currently in a bearish phase for equities. However he is looking for a summer rally, followed by weakness between August and mid-October, creating a buying opportunity. That has been a seasonal pattern more often than not, although the charts will show plenty of exceptions, including last year.

You can see enough inconsistencies on the charts in recent months - shown in Robin's report, or that Eoin and I have published or in the Library as result of your own search - to feel cautious about most markets in the short to medium term. For active investors, this is sufficient reason to lighten positions on the better rallies and repurchase following reactions. This will be a familiar strategy for veteran subscribers.

Note Robin's bullish views on Fullermoney's Asian emerging (progressing) market themes. This is where I will continue to concentrate much of my personal buying.