Imagine a train being pulled by an engine at the front, and going along a track that has regular hills and valleys. The engine will get to the top of the hill first and start going down again even as the carriages at the back are still going up.

Stock markets of the world are like that now. The ones that are the engine were climbing fast to the top of the hill all last year, but have now passed the brow and are coming down again. They are, nonetheless, the engine of the train.

The back carriages are still rising and therefore seem to be outperforming the engine. This will continue until they, too, get to the top of the hill. There will then be a time when they all go down together.

Lastly, it follows that the engine will get to the bottom first and start going back up again, even as the carriages keep falling.

There is one further complication in that we have so far only explained the short term cyclical movements. In reality the markets that are the engine of the world are following their cycles around a rising secular trend and the carriages are following their cycles around a falling or flat secular trend

David Fuller's view If you like the common sense explanation above, you will probably love the clarity with which Robin Griffiths outlines his investment roadmaps. He is one of the most experienced global market observers in the business.

I think there is a better than 50/50 chance that the Asian and South American-led engine to which he refers is already in the rolling foothills of its next ascent. However, for this to be true the previously leading indices need to hold near or above their rising 200-day moving averages which approximate the medium-term trend means.

Indonesia is near the top of my watch list because it has been this cycle's leader of the leaders, among the more important, large-population emerging (progressing) markets. So far, so good, but a break beneath 33,000 and the MA would open the door to a further setback, possibly towards 30,000.

We should also keep a close eye on other ASEAN markets such as Malaysia, Thailand, The Philippines and Singapore. Have you spotted the difference?

Those which supply China and other countries with commodities, in addition to their manufacturing and assembly businesses, continue to outperform Singapore which is increasingly a banking centre. Both Asian progressing markets and commodities remain Fullermoney secular themes. Banking is not one of our secular themes, although there is no more attractive banking sector than Singapore, in my opinion. Currently, the Singapore Index needs to move back above its MA to reaffirm the strength of initial support near 3000.

Singapore, of course, is a highly developed economy and we should also keep a close eye on two other developed Asian market leaders - South Korea and Taiwan. Both have bounced from their MAs and prior trading ranges established last year.

For Asia to perform at its best, we probably need to see an improvement in relative performance by China, at least against Wall Street. China is represented here by Shanghai A-Shares, Shanghai B-Shares, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises (H-Shares Index. They present a varied picture, as you can see, but with more than enough support building to sustain significantly higher levels over the medium term.

Lastly, among my must-watch Asian Pacific progressing economy list is India, shown here with the Sensex, Nifty and Bombay Banks Index. Although they have lost downside momentum, all three remain beneath their MAs at present, reflecting ongoing concern over the highly publicised issues of inflation and corruption.

At Fullermoney, we generally regard an orderly retreat to a rising MA as a buying opportunity. India's pullback has been sufficiently large to sow doubts, so the question in my mind is: Will we see an even better buying opportunity before this market resumes its upward trajectory, reflecting India's outstanding long-term growth potential? This is a close call but I will stay cautiously optimistic while the Banks Index remains marginally steadier than the other two shown.

Lastly, among South America's commodity leaders the one's I am watching most closely are Chile and Peru (copper is the big influence here), Colombia and Brazil. The important technical facts, in my view, are that following mean reversion they have stopped going down