The curse of interesting times

In China there is a saying, "May you live in interesting times". It is almost a threat. We seem to be cursed to do so. Never in recent experience has so much uncertainty existed on so many fronts simultaneously.

Some things we can explain and make forecasts about while others are completely unpredictable.

The natural disasters affecting the Pacific region in general and Japan in particular are probably triggered by gravity. This is driven by the moon.

The moon goes in an elliptical orbit not a circle. It gets closer and then further away. Gravity is an inverse square law. It gets much stronger if the moon comes a lot closer.

We recently passed the Super moon, when it was as close as it gets and was last there 18 years ago. The gravitational effect was powerful. As a sailor, I live with this and can assure you I have never seen a tide so low at low water and then so high six hours later as at the time of the Super moon.

The weight of the giant tides on the Pacific ring of fire triggers the many rumblings and quakes we have had. They in turn cause the tsunami.

In practice, the moon slowly approaches and then moves away. When it first started to have a big effect, the tipping point, New Zealand had its earthquake. The Japanese event was at the worst moment. The peak is past now, but we are still vulnerable for another three months. After that the strong earthquakes and tsunami should abate.

There has just been another 7.4 richter earthquake and smaller tsunami off the Japanese island of Honshu which shook buildings in Tokyo. Rebuilding will not achieve much for a few more months. After that they should be able to recover.

The area where it is much harder to make predictions is in North Africa and the Middle East.

It seems to us that the US and European countries have no right to be there at all. They have very little idea of what they are doing, how long it will take, or what it will cost. The whole thing is open ended.

We find the idea that you can hand out something called democracy like a lollipop to a child is worthy of ridicule.