Robusta Coffee Jumps to Two-Year High After Rainfall in Vietnam
Comment of the Day

December 30 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Robusta Coffee Jumps to Two-Year High After Rainfall in Vietnam

This article by Stephen Morris for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
"Prices are up as exports out of Vietnam for December are expected to be lower than the previous year, and some see this as a sign that production will not meet expectations," said Keith Flury, an analyst at Rabobank International in London, in an e-mail today. "A late rainy season delayed this year's harvest."

Robusta-coffee futures for March delivery rose as much as $128, or 6.3 percent, to $2,152 a metric ton, the highest price for a most-active contract since September 2008. It was up $63 at $2,087 a ton by 12:08 p.m. in London, bringing the gain this year to 61 percent.

Arabica coffee for March delivery gained 1.7 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $2.4130 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Eoin Treacy's view Robusta coffee found support near $1800 in early December and has since rallied to test the upper side of the two-month range. It is perhaps a little overbought in the short-term but a clear downward dynamic would be required to check potential for additional near-term upside, while a sustained move below the 200-day MA currently near 1700p would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Arabica coffee hit a new 12-year high in June and has since improved on that performance considerably. It is now accelerating higher but a clear downward dynamic would be required to check momentum beyond a brief pause. A sustained move below 200¢ would break the progression of higher reaction lows and would probably signal a lengthier correction was unfolding.

Liffe traded cocoa bounced from £1800 in early November and is now testing the 200-day MA. It needs to hold above £1900 to retain near-term scope for some additional upside.




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