Roger Bootle: "Right, I'll see your double dip and raise you an economic black hole"
Comment of the Day

July 27 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Roger Bootle: "Right, I'll see your double dip and raise you an economic black hole"

The erudite economist explains what is going on in this column from The Daily Telegraph. Here is a sample
That is the end of my excursion into semantics. Now the substance. To a significant extent, the answer to questions about the economic outlook divides the world into East and West. Far from threatening a double dip, much of Asia has been booming. Talk of recession there brings forth expressions of incredulity. Admittedly, some recent figures have suggested a slowdown in China, and some Western commentators get windy about an impending Chinese bust. But in general they are paying too much attention to year-on-year numbers. In fact, looked at in quarterly terms, the Chinese growth rate started to ease back in the second half of last year. In any case, if the Chinese economy did slow too much the authorities are in a very strong position to boost it again.

In Germany, booming exports to Asia are helping to boost GDP and employment. But in much of the West, it is a continuing tale of woe. Nevertheless, over recent weeks there has been transference of market anxiety from the eurozone to the US. This is not to say that eurozone worries have gone away, but that data from the US have been ghastly. Employment numbers have been weak, home sales have fallen, surveys of consumer confidence have been weak and core inflation has eased below 1pc.

David Fuller's view This is a good summary by Roger Bootle.

For investors, it begs the question: Where would you rather invest?

If you invest in equities you buy stocks not the economy, as I have mentioned before. A number of stocks can do quite well in an economy that is growing slowly, as we can see in the Chart Library, provided monetary conditions remain accommodative, as they certainly are today.

Nevertheless, I personally would be reluctant to invest in equities which were not leveraged to the faster growing regions of the global economy. This will not save them from falling in price during a significant downtrend on Wall Street, but they should bounce back more quickly and often move on to new highs when the global environment is benign.

Is the environment benign today? Yes, in terms of monetary policy. However there is no shortage of serious economic problems, as Fullermoney has often pointed out, but these are mainly confined to western economies and Japan. National economic problems are obviously a legitimate concern for investors but they are not entirely bad in terms of portfolio selection. For instance, a challenging economic environment motivates successful companies to lower overheads and increase efficiency. It also encourages governments and their central banks to provide accommodative monetary policies. (See also yesterday's lead comment on stock markets.)

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