Rolexes Pawned in Macau Signal Further Gains for Casinos
Comment of the Day

January 23 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Rolexes Pawned in Macau Signal Further Gains for Casinos

This article by Vinicy Chan for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Across the way from casino mogul Stanley Ho's Grand Lisboa in Macau, flashing neon lights lure cash-strapped gamblers to pawn their Rolexes and other trinkets and take another tilt at the gaming tables.

In almost any other city, these “receptacles of misery and distress,” as Charles Dickens termed pawnshops, thrive in times of economic downturn. Not in Macau, where they help fuel a casino market that's six times the Las Vegas Strip by enabling the mainland Chinese who crowd the gaming tables to sidestep China's currency controls.

Gambling revenue in the city of 576,000 people will climb 16 percent to a record $44 billion this year, driven by mass- market visitors from China as operators try to cut their reliance on high-rollers, Credit Suisse Group AG estimates. Unlike the VIPs, these gamblers don't have ready access to casino-linked credit lines.

“Unofficial funding channels, such as pawnshops, are likely to gain more importance as the casinos are keen to attract more premium-mass gamblers,” said Gabriel Chan, an analyst in Hong Kong for the Zurich-based bank. To skirt the cap on yuan they can take out of China, gamblers buy expensive goods from pawnshops using debit cards and trade them in for cash at the same store, he said.

Middle-class Chinese tourists have helped fuel growth in Macau. Revenue from mass-market gamblers will rise at least 25 percent this year, exceeding the industry's gain, according to Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank AG estimates.

Eoin Treacy's view Just as the spending power of the new Chinese middle class has helped fuel growth in the luxury goods sector, it has also created additional demand for what might be considered vices. Tobacco and alcohol remain powerful growth segments of the global economy and represent reliable income streams from the perspective of investors. Casino shares have generally tended to be more volatile and have expended considerable capital on luxury hotels and other expansion projects. However as the above article points out, the sector has attracted considerable investor interest of late.

As the Asian gambling market continues to grow major casino groups globally have expanding into Hong Kong, Macau and Singapore. As part of this expansion Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts all now have subsidiaries listed in Hong Kong. Australia's Crown Ltd also has a US ADR which appears to represent their Macau interests.

Hong Kong's Galaxy Entertainment remains in a steep uptrend and has doubled since July. The first clear downward dynamic is likely to signal the beginning of a reversion towards the mean. SJM Holdings (3.57%) broke out to new all-time highs three weeks ago and while somewhat overbought in the short term a sustained move below HK$17 would be required to question medium-term potential for additional upside.

Singapore's Genting International (0.69%) has been trending lower since hitting a medium-term peak in 2010. It has rallied over the last few months to challenge the declining 200-day MA but will need to sustain a move above S$1.50 to confirm a return to demand dominance beyond the short term.

In the USA Wynn Resorts paid a special dividend of $7.50 in October but more normally yields (1.63%). It hit a medium-term peak in 2011 and trended lower until September when it found support near $100. It has held a progression of higher reaction lows since, and rallied last week to break the more than yearlong progression of lower rally highs. A sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near $113 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Las Vegas Sands also paid a special dividend in November but more normally yields (1.88%). The share has been largely rangebound since late 2010 but is currently firming from the lower boundary and a sustained move below $45 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional higher to lateral ranging.

MGM Mirage remains in a four-year base and will need to hold above $17 to signal a return to medium-term demand dominance.

Australia's Crown Ltd (3.79%), broke out of its three-year range in October and continues to extend the breakout. While becoming increasingly overextended, a clear downward dynamic will be required to check momentum and signal a reversion towards the mean. While not a casino operator Australia's Tattersalls (10.33%) as a lottery and slot machine operator is also noteworthy. The share is overbought in the short-term but remains in an otherwise consistent medium-term uptrend. The risk of a reversion towards the mean has increased but a sustained move below A$2.90 would be required to question medium-term potential for additional upside. (Also see Comment of the Day on December 7 th).

In the UK's gambling sector, Ladbrokes (4.57%) broke out of a two-year base early last year. It found support in the region of the 200-day MA from July and has at least paused near the psychological 200p over the last month. A reversion towards the mean appears to be underway but a sustained move below 180p would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Dual Ireland and UK listed Paddy Power (1.77%) has held a rivetingly consistent uptrend since late 2008 but is temporarily overextended and posted downside weekly key reversal three weeks ago. A reversion towards the mean appears to be underway but a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near 55p, would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

William Hill (3.15%) broke out of its base in March last year and has paused in the region of 350 since October in a gradual reversion towards the mean. It has held a progression of higher reaction lows throughout and a sustained move below 340p would be required to check medium-term potential for additional upside.

The evolution of Chinese tourism and demand for gambling is an important theme for the gambling sector globally. However growth independent of this theme is also notable and suggests that the reliability of cash flows from gambling is garnering wider attention.

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