Global production is expected to climb to 11.9 million tons in 2013 from 11.47 million tons this year, according to the presentation, with first-half increases seen in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and India. World demand may rise to 11.6 million tons in 2013 from 11.15 million tons this year.

Slower economic growth in China, the world's second-largest economy, and the debt crisis in Europe have slowed demand for industrial commodities. Sales of trucks in China fell 7 percent in the first six months of 2012, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Eoin Treacy's view Rubber prices hit an historic high, in excess of ¥500, in March 2011 and have since collapsed as high prices encouraged new supply and discouraged demand. Rubber continues to trend lower and has now declined for six consecutive weeks. While oversold in the short term, a sustained move above ¥250 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional weakness.

Tyre manufacturers responded to high prices by passing on some of their costs and increasing production efficiencies. Since rubber prices have halved they have seen their margins swell and a number now exhibit interesting chart patterns. (Also see Comment of the Day on September 28 th).

Yokohama Rubber has been forming a textbook example of a first step above its base since March. A sustained move above ¥600 would reassert the medium-term uptrend. Toyo Tire & Rubber has a relatively similar pattern and found support in the region of the 200-day MA last week.

Pirelii found support in the region of the 200-day MA 3 weeks ago and remains in a relatively consistent medium-term uptrend. A sustained move below €7 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Continental AG broke upwards to new 3-year highs last week and improved on that performance this week. A sustained move back below the 200-day MA, currently near €66 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

In the birth control and prophylactic sector Church & Dwight pulled back sharply last week to close the overextension relative to the 200-day MA. While it has found at least short-term support some additional time is likely required before the medium-term uptrend can successfully be reasserted.

Reckitt Benckiser has been confined to a range since early 2010 and is now testing the upper boundary again. A sustained move above 3600p would be required to reassert medium-term demand dominance. Australia's Ansell has a broadly similar pattern and found support in the region of the lower side of its range this week.


West Africa Cocoa Crop May Get Below-Average Rain for Two Weeks – This article by Marvin G. Perez for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full: