“Authorities made a combined effort, giving strong signals to the market that they are doing anything it takes to stem the ruble rout and turn things around,” Bernd Berg, a London-based emerging-market strategist at Societe Generale SA, said in e- mailed comments. “As a result the ruble is gaining strongly.”

Russian lenders and companies are concerned about coming foreign-currency debt payments, central bank First Deputy Governor Ksenia Yudaeva said in an e-mailed statement today. The measures are intended to balance supply and demand to help stabilize the ruble rate as soon as possible, she said.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Yesterday’s action had a climactic feel to it and today’s rebound suggests that the central bank’s interest hike to 17% is gaining some traction. However if yesterday’s low is to hold beyond the next few weeks and months some bullish catalysts will need to fall into place for Russia. Among these would be a firmer oil price, easing of sanctions or a de-escalation of military tensions in Ukraine.

At the present time Brent Crude Oil is still trending lower and a rally of more than $5 will be required to check the consistency of the decline. Considering how oversold it is at present, anyone with a short position might consider introducing a trailing stop as a precautionary measure. 

The US Dollar denominated London listing of Russia’s largest lender, Sberbank, rallied by 28% today; unwinding all of yesterday’s decline. It did not hold today’s highs and will need to at least continue to steady above the $3 area if the rebound hypothesis is to be given the benefit of the doubt. 

Elsewhere, the Norwegian Krone which has been in freefall also steadied today and a reversionary rally is looking increasingly likely. 

This chart of the Norwegian Index rebased to US Dollars highlights how much of any influence the weak Krone has been on performance. Nevertheless, a rebound in the oil price represents an important bullish catalyst before one could conclude recovery is underway.