Russian winter-wheat planting faces "doom and gloom" after rainfall in main growing areas in the country's southwest was too light to relieve a drought, agricultural weather forecaster Martell Crop Projections said.

Soils in the Volga Federal District's Saratov and Samara regions remain too dry for wheat planting to start and require "drenching rains," Martell said in a report on its website dated yesterday. A cold front last week brought "little relief" in the area or in the Volgograd and Krasnodar regions of the Southern Federal District, it said.

Russia has banned all grain exports until next year after drought damaged domestic crops, driving up wheat prices across the world. Saratov and Samara received only "spotty showers" this month, adding up to less than 3 millimeters (0.15 inch) of rain, according to Whitefish Bay, Wisconsin-based Martell.

"The general picture is one of doom and gloom, since the highest-yielding wheat areas are still in the throes of a drought," the forecaster said.

Accumulated rainfall in Saratov from July 2 to Sept. 14 was 0.84 inch, a deficit of 4.83 inches compared to normal amounts, according to Martell.

"It was not nearly enough to proceed with wheat planting," said the forecaster. "Drenching rains would be required for favorable germination, given that soils are extremely dry through a deep layer."

David Fuller's view This is a serious situation because Russia's winter wheat crop is more important in terms of yield than its spring wheat which suffered from severe drought.

Taken together with all the other crop problems discussed on this site, I maintain that the risk of global food price inflation next year is increasing. If so, this would become a headwind for financial markets, most notably bonds.

Here is an article on US corn from Bloomberg.


My thanks to a subscriber for this item from Agrimony.com:
Dry weather limits hopes for Argentine wheat crop