The S&P 500 has been slower in surpassing its record than other American equity gauges in the bull market since 2009. The Russell 2000 topped its all-time high in April 2011, as did the Dow Jones Transportation Average. The S&P Midcap 400 Index exceeded its previous record on January 2011, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average did it on March 5. Both the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index are trading below the peaks they reached in March 2000.

The S&P 500 came within two points of its all-time high on March 14, four trading days after the four-year anniversary of the current bull market in U.S. stocks. If history is any guide, the benchmark U.S. equity gauge may continue its advance for the next 2 1/2 years after surpassing its record.

Since 1945, the S&P 500 has climbed for 30 additional months after exceeding a previous record, according to a team led by Deutsche Bank AG's David Bianco, the New York-based chief U.S. equity strategist. The average gain during the period was 59 percent, or 18 percent annualized, Bianco wrote in a March 8 note. Only three bull markets have lasted less than a year after exceeding all-time highs, his team said: 1972, 1980 and 2007.

“One of the things that's different from last year and the year before that is that we do have cash flows into equities in mutual funds,” William Fries, the Santa Fe, New Mexico-based manager of the $28 billion Thornburg International Value Fund, said by phone. “The psychology is, ‘Gee we've missed a lot, so maybe we better get in."

Eoin Treacy's view The Index of suggested allocations to the stock market from Wall Street strategists bottomed at 40% in July and has since risen to 45.8%. As such it reflects the relative trickle of money that has so far flowed out of bonds and cash and into equities. This change of sentiment represents a significant potential source of additional demand that could help to fuel a further bull market in stocks over the next few years.

The question occupying investors' minds at present must be whether this bullish scenario will be fulfilled now rather than later. The S&P500 has rallied impressively from the region of the 200-day MA since November and is currently testing its all-time peak. Considering that the Dow Jones Industrials Average, Dow Jones Transports Index, Russell 2000 and S&P Midcap 400 have already broken upwards, the balance of probabilities is that the S&P500 will also break upwards. However, considering that the Index is currently close to as overextended relative to the 200-day MA as it has been on any occasion since 2009, the potential for some further consolidation first, is more likely.