S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats
Comment of the Day

March 11 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats

Eoin Treacy's view Following last week's reviews of the constituents of the S&P500 and S&P Europe 350 Dividend Aristocrats I thought it might be instructive to review the S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats.

Unfortunately, S&P have restricted access to the more recent constituent data so I am limited to the constituents I reviewed previously. The most recent reasonably comprehensive review of the Index's constituents was posted in Comment of the Day on May 30 th 2012. At the time the Index was testing the lower side of its 18-month range but has since held a progression of higher reaction lows and broke upwards to new all-time highs in January. A sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near 2750, would be required to question medium-term scope for continued upside.

Here is a pdf of the constituents. Some of the most notable chart patterns include.

Australia

Ramsay Healthcare, CSL and Super Retail have rallied particularly impressively but are susceptible to mean reversion.

Ansell is globally diversified in the condom and rubber glove markets. The share broke successfully above A$15 in September and a sustained move below that level would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

In the retail sector, David Jones has been cutting its dividend so could no longer be considered a dividend aristocrat. However it found support in the region of A$2 from June 2012 and broke out of its base in February. A sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near A$2.50 would be required to question medium-term scope for continued upside. Woolworths broke out of an almost 5-year range in January and posted a new all-time high today. A sustained move below A$30 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

In the consumer sector Coca Cola Amatil remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend. A sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near A$13.40, would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

In the financial sector, QBE Insurance lost downward momentum from early 2012 and is now testing the medium-term progression of lower rally highs. A sustained move above A$15 would confirm a return to medium-term demand dominance.

Hong Kong

Cheung Kong Infrastructure has found support in the region of the 200-day MA on successive occasions since 2010 and completed an 18-month range in February. It continues to extend its breakout and a sustained move below HK$47 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

In the consumer sector, Hengan International has been largely rangebound since 2010 but is testing the upper side of its congestion area and a sustained move above HK$80 would reaffirm medium-term demand dominance.

Japan

The weakness of the Yen has been a significant factor in the performance of Japanese equities for the last few months and some movements are particularly noteworthy. To illustrate just how powerful these moves have been I have used as much data as we have available, which is approximately 30-years for the majority of Japanese shares.

Asahi Breweries and Hisamitsu Pharm broke out to new all-time highs in February. Japan Tobacco retested its 2007 high last week. Uni–Charm continues to extend its overall bull market as the Yen depreciates.

In the retail sector, Lawson broke of its base in August, consolidated mostly above the MA until December and broke out to new highs in January. Shimamura broke out of a five-year base this month.

In the financial sector Mitsubishi UFJ Lease & Finance Company Limited also broke out of a four-year base in January

In the home improvement/appliances sector Rinnai has held a mostly unbroken progression of higher reaction lows since 2000 and hit a new all-time high in February.

Singapore

Both Jardine Matheson and Jardine Strategic remain in consistent medium-term uptrends.

Indonesia

Coal producer, Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam found support in the region of IDR13,000 from July and has held a progression of incrementally higher reaction lows since. A sustained move below IDR14,500 would be required to question recovery potential.

India

In the financial sector HDFC Bank continues to outperform both its sector and the wider market. It found support today in the region of the 200-day MA and a sustained move below INR600 would be required to question medium scope for continued upside. Housing Development Finance found support in the region of the 200-day MA from the beginning of the month and a sustained move below INR750 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Asian Paints remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend and hit a new all-time high today.

South Korea

Woongjin Coway failed to sustain a downward break in October and rebounded to complete a 3-year range by January. A sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near KRW41,500, would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

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