Search for Super Corn Seeks to Limit Nitrogen Use, Pollution
Comment of the Day

April 15 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Search for Super Corn Seeks to Limit Nitrogen Use, Pollution

This is a fascinating article by Jon Birger for Bloomberg which may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
"I'm a believer that we will be able to fix nitrogen in corn some day and that it's going to change the world," said Nicholas Duck, head of corn and soybean research for Bayer CropScience. "That said, I think we are a long, long way from being able to understand how to do that."

Natural sources of nitrogen available to early farmers, such as animal manure or plant decay, tended to be limited, putting a cap on what farms could produce. Then, in 1900, a German chemist named Fritz Haber made a discovery that would win him a Nobel Prize.

Haber found a way to make synthetic nitrogen fertilizer by pressure-cooking nitrogen and hydrogen into the plant food now known as ammonium nitrate. His discovery gave birth not just to modern agriculture but also to the modern world. (Haber is also known for supervising Germany's poison-gas program during World War I.) Crop yields skyrocketed as farmers applied nitrates to their crops. More food allowed world population to soar from 1.6 billion people in 1900 to 6.6 billion today.

Eoin Treacy's view Nitrogen is at the core of a number of agriculture related stock market sectors. Seed producers are clearly benefitting from increased demand for food, particularly following a difficult 18-months for crop yields. The search for a less nitrogen dependent strain of corn is the hold grail for the sector. Nitrogen fertilizer producers have benefitted from increased food demand and also lower natural gas prices.

In the seed sector DuPont hit a new 10-year peak in February and has been consolidating above $50 since. A sustained move below that level would be required to question medium-term upside potential. BASF found support at is 200-day MA five weeks ago and reasserted its medium-term uptrend last week. Dow Chemical remains in a relatively steady medium-term uptrend. Syngenta is less consistent but also has a medium-term upward bias while Monsanto is a laggard.

Agrium and CF Industries are both nitrogen fertilser producers and share a similar chart pattern. They both encountered resistance from mid February and have pulled back towards their respective 200-day MAs. They will need to continue to find support in the current areas if their medium-term uptrends are to remain consistent. Yara International needs to hold above the low near NOK250 to indicate a return to demand dominance.

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