Siddharth Rajeev and Vincent Weber: Uranium's Upside
Of all the commodities, we are most bullish on uranium because its fundamentals have been very strong. We didn't really see an uptick in prices when all the other commodities moved in the past 6-12 months. However, in the past few months, uranium prices moved up by 20% from $40-$48 per pound. The fundamentals of uranium and its recently revived market interest should result in strong performance by companies with good projects.
Two companies that fall in that category are Strathmore Minerals Corp. (TSX.V:STM; OTC.PK SHEETS:STHJF) and Mawson Resources Ltd. (TSX:MAW). Mawson's stock has more than doubled since we initiated coverage in July. Strathmore Minerals stock is up 20% since we initiated coverage on Aug. 10.
Strathmore is a pure uranium story. The company is focused on advancing its Roca Honda uranium project-one of the largest planned uranium mines in the U.S. in more than 30 years-to production. Roca Honda has 17.5 million pounds (Mlb.) measured and indicated and 15.8 million inferred. The company owns several other properties with NI 43-101 and historic resources. Most importantly, Strathmore has a good management team and a strong cash position. It had more than $25 million in the bank this summer. We believe this is a very good, undervalued story.
And
SR: The commodity that we are most bullish on at this time is uranium. We expect uranium stocks to perform well in the next 12 months because most of the uranium stocks were fortunate to have raised a lot of capital when uranium was trading at record highs of $137 per pound few year ago. Right now, a lot of uranium stocks are trading close to its cash. So increasing interest in this sector could result in higher returns.
Eoin Treacy's view The basic premise of successful investing is buy-low-sell-high
so with uranium prices firming within a base they are worthy of a second look
from that perspective alone. At the bottom of any market cycle there will be
considerable concern about the upside scope for the market and uranium is no
exception. Oil prices remain rangebound. Domestic US supply of natural gas has
increased substantially with the advent of shale gas which has contributed to
relatively depressed prices. This has created competition for uranium as an
energy source. The bull market for uranium and associated shares that peaked
in 2007 succeeded in raising capital to fund the opening or expansion of mines
and supply has increased. The global slowdown has resulted in a lower demand
for energy over the last few years.
However,
more and more reactors are being constructed. Decommissioning of older reactors
is being put off or reversed in Europe and the USA. The anti-carbon lobby may
support even faster development of additional capacity to bring down emissions.
The recovery of the global economy should see energy demand rise over the medium
term. All of which should see demand rise well above today's levels. In addition
it is by no means certain that additional supply will be forthcoming from the
decommissioning of nuclear arms. The credit crisis slowed or stopped the development
of marginal mining operations. The Australian green lobby has never been more
influential and is ambivalent about the uranium sector which it views as a hazard.
These issues could reduce supply over the medium term.
In
the meantime prices lost downward momentum
from early 2009 and have been ranging above $40 since. The chart pattern has
developed an upward bias within the range since July and has rallied to test
the 200-day MA which appears to be turning upwards. A sustained move above $60
would complete the base and indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance.
While the technical evidence remains in favour of such an outcome, the three-month
progression of rising lows will need to remain intact if the short-term upside
is to be given the benefit of the doubt.