Singapore Unexpectedly Revalues Currency on Growth
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated gross domestic product in China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, increased 11.7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, compared with growth of 10.7 percent in the prior three months. That would be the fastest pace since the period ended June 2007.
The benchmark Straits Times Index advanced to a 22-month high, up as much as 1.1 percent to 3,004.45. DBS Group Holdings Ltd., Southeast Asia's biggest lender, climbed as much as 4.2 percent. Neptune Orient Lines Ltd., owner of Southeast Asia's largest container line, surged as much as 7.7 percent.
The government revised its inflation target for this year to between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent, compared with an earlier projection of 2 percent to 3 percent. Consumer prices rose 1 percent in February from a year earlier, the fastest pace since March 2009, official data show.
"Singapore's GDP release represents the start of a series of strong Asian first-quarter numbers which will emphasize that central banks across the region have fallen significantly behind the curve," said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Singapore.
Eoin Treacy's view From
2002 to 2008 Singapore followed an overt policy of allowing its currency to
strengthen at least in part to combat inflationary pressures and to lend credence
to its investment destination credentials, particularly for private banking
services. By April 2008, the currency had exceeded its 1995
highs and even during the credit crisis had a comparatively small decline compared
to its neighbouring currencies.
The US
Dollar peaked against the Singapore
Dollar in March 2009 near S$1.55 and remains in a relatively consistent
downtrend. It has been ranging around S$1.40 since December but broke downwards
once more today. A sustained move back above S$1.41 would now be required to
question scope for further Singapore Dollar strength. If happiness in the currency
markets is having both the trend and the central bank on your side, then the
MAS' move today suggests that the Singapore Dollar has further room to appreciate.
The Asia
Dollar Index has retraced the majority of the 2008 decline and broke upwards
to new recovery highs two weeks ago. A downward dynamic would be required to
check potential for additional short-term upside, while a sustained move below
110 would be required to trigger an MDL stop, break through the rising 200-day
moving average and question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.
There
is strong commonality across Asia's currencies with just about all of the more
liquid markets appreciating versus the Dollar. In descending order, the currencies
which have retraced most of the bear market decline against the Dollar are the
Indonesian
Rupiah, Australian
Dollar, Malaysia
Ringgit Thai
Baht, Taiwan
Dollar, Korean
Won, New
Zealand Dollar, Indian
Rupee and Philippine
Peso. Exceptions are relatively small economies such as the Vietnamese
Dong, Pakistani
Rupee and Sri
Lankan Rupee which continue to fall against the US Dollar.
Since
Asian and Antipodean economies were less affected by the root causes of the
credit crisis, rebounded faster and are among the first where inflationary pressures
are evident, it is reasonable to expect that interest rate differentials, against
the US Dollar, will continue to expand which makes shorting these currencies
an increasingly expensive proposition.