Small Gold Trader Makes Big Splash
David Fuller's view This is a reminder
of the financial games people play, often with other people's money. I have
nothing against legal speculation by individuals per se, and would be poorer
without it. However, I would prefer not to place any of my capital in someone
else's speculative fund, not least because I would have little idea regarding
either what they did with it or the manner of their trades.
Acting
for our own personal accounts, few of us deal in a size that could significantly
influence the trend for a liquid market. However pooled funds in highly leverage
vehicles are another matter. Some inevitably blow up, sometimes with consequences.
I preferred
gold before it became everyone's favourite trading or investment vehicle. Nevertheless,
the interesting question today is whether the story above makes gold a safer
or more risky investment for serious investors?
Gold
bullion (monthly, weekly
& daily) is more risky today than
it was a few years ago, because it has risen in price against most other investments.
Some gold bugs say its price is constant and everything else rises, or has mostly
fallen over the last decade, against the yellow metal. OK, but the result is
the same.
Gold
bullion is also more risky today because it is back on the radar of central
banks and regulators. They would almost certainly prefer gold to be less exciting
and glamorous, because its stellar performance places some other monetary assets
in a less favourable light, not least fiat currencies. In the 'some things never
change' department, fiat money has been printed into purchasing power oblivion
throughout our monetary history.
Fortunately
for holders of gold and other precious metals, they have not yet reached levels
where they represent a serious threat to the authority of central banks. In
fact, more central banks have been buying rather than selling gold in recent
years.
Therefore
Daniel Shak and his highly leveraged gold trading scheme may have done bullion
investors a small favour, to the extent to which he may have contributed to
the recent mean reversion for gold, seen on the longer-term charts above.
Today,
I regard gold as a much better buy-and-hold asset, or long trade, than it was
back in November when we began to see the downward dynamics. Interestingly,
gold's high-beta little sister - silver
- had an upside key day reversal on Friday. I may open some long trades in precious
metals.