Some consequences of current monetary policy
David Fuller's view The
Fed, the ECB, presumably the BoJ if Mr Shirakawa does what he says publicly,
and now China - they are all either maintaining or introducing expansionary
monetary policies. Fundamentally, this is extremely bullish for gold (weekly
& daily) and silver (weekly
& daily). However, given their
previous corrections and consolidations of approximately eighteen months following
earlier upward accelerations over the last decade, it may take a few more months
before the latest round of monetary stimulus is fully reflected by monetary
metals. Nevertheless, it looks increasingly as if both have seen their floors
for this correction and appear to be in the process of establishing the first
higher reation low.
Central
bank liquidity should also cushion downside risk in the S&P
500 and most other stock market indices, leading to more normal reactions
and consolidations at this time, unlike last year's big shakeout. This would
help to keep the cyclical bull trends on track.
A firmer
performance by China's A-Shares should
dispel hard landing fears, firming mining shares which have mostly underperformed
this year.