Stock market review
Eoin Treacy's view The Indonesian
market did just that yesterday, posting a large upward dynamic from the psychological
2500 level. It held the advance today despite some intraday weakness. This action
has at least checked the short-term decline and a sustained move below 2500
would be required to begin to give some of the more bearish forecasts credence.
The Jakarta Finance Index also improved
on yesterday's gain.
The Malaysian
market formed an upside key day reversal today and a sustained move below 1250
would be required to question scope for some additional firming.
The Nikkei-225,
Topix and Topix
Banks indices all posted upside key day reversals today. The Nikkei-225
has fallen 1500 points this month alone, forming a deeply oversold condition.
It has returned to an area of potential support and the Yen is looking equally
overbought. Additional follow through tomorrow will lend further credence to
the case for at least a relief rally.
The Shanghai
A-Shares Index is oversold in the short-term and has begun to steady. However,
a sustained move back above 3350 is needed to break the medium-term progression
of lower rally highs.
The Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen almost 15%
since mid-April and dropped below the psychological 2500 on Tuesday. However,
it has since rallied, pushing through 2600 today, in what is looking increasingly
like a failed downside break. A sustained move below 2500 would now be required
to question scope at least a relief rally.
The German
DAX found support well above its February
lows rather than well below them as with the Euro Stoxx 50 above. The rally
of the last two days is occurring from the region of the 200-day moving average
and a sustained move below 5600 would be required to further question scope
for some further higher to lateral ranging.
The performance
of the UK's FTSE-100 lies somewhere between
that of the Stoxx 50 and DAX. It has fallen through its 200-day moving average
but has steadied in the region of the February low and the psychological 5000.
A relief rally appears to be underway but a sustained move back above the MA
would be required to indicate demand has regained medium-term potency.
The Greek
market has almost halved since October and is one of a small number of markets
to return to test their March 2009 lows. It is deeply oversold relative to the
200-day moving average and has lost downward momentum as it approaches the psychological
1500. However, an incontrovertible upward dynamic is required to confirm support
in this area.
The S&P
500 has also fallen through its 200-day moving average but has steadied
in the region of its February lows. The one-month downtrend has at least been
checked but a sustained move back above 1100 would be needed to indicate demand
is regaining dominance beyond the current bounce. The VIX
Index posted a downside key reversal on the 21st and continues to pull back
from its peak, supporting the argument that at least a short-term low has been
reached.
The Nasdaq-100
has pulled back to test the May 6th intraday low which is in the region of the
200-day moving average and above the February lows, so the medium-term progression
of higher reaction lows remains intact. Provided the low near 1750 is not taken
out, the benefit of the doubt can probably be given to some further higher to
lateral ranging.
To one
extent or another, all of the above indices have sustained some technical damage
to their medium-term uptrends. However, they have become oversold in the short-term
and many are finding support in the region of their 200-day moving averages
and/or their February lows. An increasing number of relief rallies appear to
be getting underway. There is no way of knowing at this stage whether we have
seen a low or THE low for this correction. Sustained moves below the recent
lows would be required to reassert short-term downtrends, while the extent of
technical damage done as well as the blow to sentiment makes the potential for
some additional ranging above the recent lows a distinct possibility.
If the
broad bullish environment which has been in place since at least March 2009
is to be reasserted the majority of global stock market indices will have to
sustain moves back above their 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks
and potentially months. If the most likely scenario of additional ranging comes
about, then we can expect a raging argument to develop as the bulls and bears
vie for dominance. This will make a factual reading of the chart action even
more vital.