"The current line-up of vessels and the continued strength in regional demand are expected to support Thai premiums,"

Peter de Klerk, an analyst at C. Czarnikow Sugar Futures Ltd., said in an e-mail. Czarnikow Group, based in London, handles about 10 percent of the global sugar trade.

Futures markets are reflecting concern about securing supply in the next several months. The October contract on ICE Futures U.S. closed at 24.38 cents on June 13. Sugar for delivery a year later was at 23.24 cents. That also indicates the surge in prices is not expected to last.

Should Brazilian cargoes accelerate and Thailand's congestion ease, prices may resume their drop to reflect the return to a supply surplus. Harvests may outpace demand for a second year in the next season, with the glut increasing to 6.5 million tons, from 1.6 million tons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates.

Eoin Treacy's view The rise of the middle class is helping to fuel the increasing capacity to afford treats regularly. This is helping to drive growth in demand for sugar. This inflation-adjusted chart of NYBOT-ICE sugar, where we have data going back to 1961, depicts sugar's breakout from a 20-year inflation adjusted base. Commodity prices are volatile and capable of enormous swings both up and down. However, on a secular timescale the odds are stacked in favour of prices remaining on an upward trajectory.

These long-term charts of the spread between the 1st and 2nd month continuation charts for sugar traded on NYBOT-ICE and LIFFE indicate a clearly tighter market since 2009. Sugar has traded in backwardation, indicating a dearth of supply, for longer periods of time than was the norm over the last 30 years.

NYBOT-ICE sugar peaked near 30¢ in February and pulled back sharply before finding support near 20¢ in May. It has rebounded impressively and a clear downward dynamic and/or break of the short-term progression of higher reaction lows, currently near 23.2¢ would needed to check the six-week advance. The case for a medium-term low near 20¢ can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt provided prices find support above that level on a pullback.

Sugar traded on LIFFE fell less and subsequently rallied more, probably because they are more reflective of Thai supply. It has now rallied to break the four-month progression of lower rally highs. Today's pullback checked the short-term advance but a sustained move below $650 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

With secular demand for sugar on an upward trajectory diabetes medication remains in high demand. Novo Nordisk has been a remarkable performer but has lost momentum somewhat, below DKK700, and has been ranging in a relatively gradual reversion towards the 200-day MA. A sustained move below it, currently near DKK600 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.