Ted Pulling, manager of JII interviewed on India's current problems and long-term prospects
Comment of the Day

February 09 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Ted Pulling, manager of JII interviewed on India's current problems and long-term prospects

My thanks to a subscriber for this informative item from Citywire.

David Fuller's view India is a high-beta market. Last year it was revered, this year it is feared, so far. Savvy long-term investors lighten on strength, if they are going to lighten, and buy on fear.

If every stock market index looked like India's Sensex, I would say we were in a global bear market, although one likely to be a lot smaller than 2000-2001 or 2008-2009, because we do not have the same bubbles or fraudulent banking activity today. Fortunately, not every stock market index looks like India, which is suffering from the government's mistakes, and these have aggravated food price inflation and understandably increased concern over corruption.

Since food price inflation is a global problem which is predictably getting worse before it gets better, those buying India on this weakness may wish to do so incrementally, on a scale-down basis. Ted Pulling expects a tricky 1H 2011 for India. I would allow for this because we do not know when the global food price surge will top out. However India's own crop cycle may be the greater influence on its stock market, in addition to perceptions regarding governance. In inflationary terms, might India be first in and first out? We will see.

Meanwhile, since I am riding out this downturn myself, I like the way Ted Pulling has positioned JII (See also yesterday's top-10 review.)

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