Ted Pulling, manager of JII interviewed on India's current problems and long-term prospects
David Fuller's view India is a high-beta market. Last year it
was revered, this year it is feared, so far. Savvy long-term investors lighten
on strength, if they are going to lighten, and buy on fear.
If every
stock market index looked like India's
Sensex, I would say we were in a global bear market, although one likely
to be a lot smaller than 2000-2001 or 2008-2009, because we do not have the
same bubbles or fraudulent banking activity today. Fortunately, not every stock
market index looks like India, which is suffering from the government's mistakes,
and these have aggravated food price inflation and understandably increased
concern over corruption.
Since
food price inflation is a global problem which is predictably getting worse
before it gets better, those buying India on this weakness may wish to do so
incrementally, on a scale-down basis. Ted Pulling expects a tricky 1H 2011 for
India. I would allow for this because we do not know when the global food price
surge will top out. However India's own crop cycle may be the greater influence
on its stock market, in addition to perceptions regarding governance. In inflationary
terms, might India be first in and first out? We will see.
Meanwhile,
since I am riding out this downturn myself, I like the way Ted Pulling has positioned
JII (See also yesterday's top-10 review.)