Tesoro Says Alaska Refinery Can Hold Rates for a Week
Comment of the Day

January 12 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Tesoro Says Alaska Refinery Can Hold Rates for a Week

This article by Paul Burkhardt for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full:
Tesoro Corp. said its Kenai refinery in Alaska can operate at normal, targeted rates for the next week and could extend those rates by scheduling deliveries of crude via tankers from outside Alaska.

Tesoro doesn't have information "that would lead us to believe that the shutdown" of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System will last that long, Mike Marcy, a company spokesman, said in an e-mail.

The 72,000-barrel-a-day plant on Cook Inlet, 70 miles southwest of Anchorage, produces ultra-low-sulfur gasoline, jet fuel, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, heavy fuel oils, propane and asphalt, he said.

The 800-mile (1,287-kilometer) Trans Alaska Pipeline System, which runs from Prudhoe Bay to the port of Valdez, shut on Jan. 8, after a leak.

Alaska North Slope crude oil is delivered to the Kenai refinery by double-hulled tankers from Valdez; similarly, production in Cook Inlet is also delivered to the plant via tanker, Marcy said.

A 70-mile, 40,000-barrel-a-day oil products pipeline transports jet fuel, gasoline and diesel to the Port of Anchorage and the Anchorage International Airport from the Tesoro refinery, according to Marcy.

Eoin Treacy's view The shutdown of the Alaskan oil pipeline has helped to increase investor interest in energy related products. Both gasoline and heating oil hit new recovery highs today and would need to break their short-term progressions of higher reaction lows, currently at $236 and $245 respectively, to question potential for some additional upside. Oil has also firmed within its short-term range and the odds have increased for a successful upward break.

Refiners have been notable laggards over the last two years and failed to rally even as oil more that doubled from its lows. However, this is beginning to change. Valero Energy has been ranging with downward bias since late 2008. It rallied to break the medium-term progression of lower rally highs in December and is now pressuring the upper side of the base. Tesoro Corp, Frontier Oil Corp and Western Refining all share the same characteristic.

Sunoco retested its October 2008 low in July 2009 but has sustained a progression of higher major reaction lows since. It has been ranging in the region of $40 since October and a sustained move below $37 would be required to question potential for a successful upward break.

Holly Corp has been a clear leader in the sector. It completed its base in October, paused for a month and has moved into a consistent uptrend. A sustained move below $40 would be required to begin to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

CVR Energy broke out of a yearlong range in November and hit a new recovery high in December. While somewhat overextended relative to the 200-day MA, a sustained move below $10 would be required to question medium-term recovery potential.

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