Thailand
The majority of ASEAN markets have benefitted from increasing international investor flows over the last few months and Thailand is no exception. It has received net inflows of nearly $16 billion year-to-date but this has done little to support the stock market in currency adjusted terms. Just about every Asian market pulled back today but Thailand has been leading on the downside.
The SET Index has been confined to a volatile range since 2013 and has pulled back from the upper boundary over the last three weeks. A short-term oversold condition is evident but a clear upward dynamic will be required to signal demand returning to dominance beyond scope for some steadying. With today’s steadier tone on Wall Street, that may represent an increasingly likely possibility.
The US Dollar denominated iShares MSCI Thailand ETF has a clear defined progression of lower rally highs since 2013 so a sustained move above $77 will be required to signal a return to medium-term demand dominance.
The Global X ASEAN ETF has closed its short-term overbought condition relative to the upper side of the underlying trading range and the region of the trend mean so it will need to demonstrate support in this area if potential for continued upside is to be given the benefit of the doubt.