The Autonomies
Eoin Treacy's view From early 2011 we began to identify large multinational companies that were
exhibiting both relative strength and temporal leadership. As the commonality
among this group became clearer a number of shared characteristics were evident.
These are large internationally diversified companies that dominate their respective
niches and had in many respects outgrown their domestic markets. They often
had solid records of dividend increases and have balance sheets strong enough
to sustain them. They tend to benefit from superior corporate governance and
have some of the most recognisable global brands. From August 2011 we began
to refer to these companies as Autonomies.
The
Autonomies reflect the confluence of three important themes that are likely
to persist for much of the next decade if not longer. The Greatest Urbanisation
in History represents the fact that the global population moved from being mostly
rural to mostly urban in the last few years. Increased urbanisation generally
leads to higher standards of living, greater productivity and increasing per
capita consumption of just about everything.
We
are also living through one of the most exciting golden ages of technological
development in the history for our species. The capacity for innovation in technology
and healthcare represent important potential for productivity gains over the
next decade. The pace of patent filing alone suggests that this theme has considerably
further to run.
The
advent of unconventional oil and gas production in the USA represents a game
changer for the energy sector which is still in its early stages. While these
new methods have so far been most successfully employed in North America, the
capacity for advanced drilling techniques to be employed elsewhere remains undiminished.
Energy market tightness is likely to be less of an issue from later this decade.
The
original list of 66 companies I compiled was heavily weighted by consumer, healthcare
and technology shares. In the last few months I have expanded the list to include
more service, industrial, materials, chemicals, mining and energy companies
so that it has swelled to 145
shares.
Another
characteristic shared by this expanded list of Autonomies is the high number
of monopolies and oligarchies represented. For example Coca Cola and Pepsi dominate
the global soft drinks market. Linde, Air Liquide and Praxair dominate the global
compressed gases sector. WPP, Publicis and Omnicom dominate the global public
relations, lobbying and conventional advertising sectors. Experian is the most
globally present credit checking company. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, with VALE
dominate the global iron-ore market while Potash Corp of Saskatchewan is the
largest producer of potash in the world. .
On
a click through of this list mean reversion is a common characteristic. A substantial
number have already returned to their trend means, represented by their 200-day
MAs If medium-term uptrends are to remain consistent, they will need to demonstrate
support in the current region. Coca Cola,
Nestle, Colgate
Palmolive, Mattel, Diageo,
SAB Miller, Anheuser
Busch, ARM Holdings, Heineken,
Eli Lilly, Intertek
Group, Unilever and Mondalez
International are among those who have returned to test the region of their
MAs.
Johnson
& Johnson, Biogen, Bristol
Myer Squibb, International Flavours &
Fragrance, Kimberly Clark, Compagnie
Financiere Richemont, Walt Disney,
Google, Rolls
Royce, Berkshire Hathaway and Ecolab
exhibit some of the largest overextensions and are therefore some of the most
likely to experience mean reversion.