The Autonomies and mean reversion
Eoin Treacy's view This
has been a trying couple of months for global stock markets with almost every
sector displaying susceptibility to increased volatility and selling pressure.
Despite the deterioration there has been a clear divergence between companies
leveraged to industrial production and those focused on the growth of the global
consumer base. This characteristic was also evident from July 2011 and reflected
the competition between the views that the global economy was slowing down versus
the resilience of Asia's growth economies.
The
Autonomies which we define as truly global companies, that have outgrown their
respective markets, have brand recognition, dominate their respective niches,
possess solid cash flows and a strong record of dividend increases have mostly
outperformed. However, even among these companies mean reversion towards the
200-day MA is evident.
During
my tour of the USA with The Chart Seminar from early April it was evident that
many of these shares had entered periods of mean reversion following very impressive
performances from Q3 2011. Many have returned to interesting levels so it appears
an opportune time to review the sector.
The
Nasdaq-100 found at least short-term support
in the region of the 200-day MA and the upper side of the underlying trading
range yesterday. A sustained move below 2500 would now be required to question
potential for some additional upside. Apple,
which is a totem in the technology sector and the Autonomies, pulled back sharply
from its April peak but also found at least short-term support yesterday above
its MA. Samsung Electronics has a similar
pattern. Microsoft, Google,
Novellus Systems and Intel
Corp all tested their 200-day MAs over the last few sessions and have found
at least short-term support. IBM continues
to pause in the region of the MA while Cisco
Systems, Qualcomm and Microchip
Technologies have pulled back below their trend means. Cisco Systems dropped
abruptly two weeks ago on a disappointing growth forecast but has stabilised
above $16. Qualcomm found at least short-term support yesterday while Microchip
Technology has returned to a potential area of support in the region of the
2011 lows near $30. Potential for at least a bounce has increased. HTC
has also retuned to test last year's lows.
In
the healthcare sector, Novo Nordisk
has lost upward momentum somewhat and while it has at least partially unwound
the overbought condition relatively to the 200-day MA some additional mean reversion
appears likely. Biogen also appears susceptible
to mean reversion. Bristol Myer Squibb,
Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline
and Sanofi have returned to the region
of their respective 200-day MAs and will need to continue to find support in
this area if their medium-term uptrends are to remain consistent. Johnson
& Johnson and Merck have been
mostly rangebound and clear upward dynamics will be required to confirm the
return of demand to dominance. Pfizer
continues to trend higher.
In
the restaurants sector, Yum Brands found
support yesterday in the region of $67.50 having at least partially wound the
overbought condition relative to the 200-day MA. McDonalds
held a move below its 200-day MA for the first time in more than 30 months.
It has paused near $90 but needs to hold above that level if the medium-term
uptrend is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.
In
the alcoholic beverages sector, Anheuser-Busch
In Bev, Diageo, Remy
Cointreau, Pernod Ricard and Asia
Pacific Breweries lost momentum somewhat from March and remain in a process
of mean reversion towards the ascending 200-day MA. SABMiller
has returned to test the region of the 200-day MA and the upper side of the
underlying trading range and appears to have found support.
In
the non-alcoholic beverages sector Starbucks
has at least partially unwound its overbought condition relative to the 200-day
MA and found at least short-term support yesterday above the psychological $50
area. Coca Cola continues to unwind its
short-term overbought condition while PepsiCo
is rallying towards the upper side of the two-year range.
In
the Foods and Consumer Goods sector, Nestle,
Unilever, Proctor
& Gamble, Heinz, Mead
Johnson Nutrition and Reckitt Benckiser
have been mostly rangebound for the last few months but continue to find support
above or in the region of their respective 200-day MAs. Kraft
and Hengan International have outperformed
somewhat. Colgate Palmolive, Kimberly
Clark and Uni Charm are susceptible
to additional mean reversion. Following a questioning of its sales strategy
by David Einhorn Herbalife dropped abruptly.
It has found at least short-term support near $42 and in a best case scenario
will need to spend some time consolidating before it can support a significant
advance from these levels.
While
in the cosmetics sector, Nu Skin Enterprises
shares a similar sale strategy with Herbalife. It also pulled back sharply and
has paused in the region of $40. While there is scope for an additional bounce,
technical damage has been done to what had previously been a consistent uptrend.
If the suspicions of those touting the bearish case are correct, it will fail
to build support in the current region. Estee
Lauder has pulled back sharply and is now testing the region of the 200-day
MA. It has steadied somewhat today but a clear upward dynamic will be required
to confirm a return to demand dominance in this area.
In
the luxury goods sector, LVMH, Christian
Dior and BMW failed to hold moves
to new highs in March and have pulled back to test the 200-day MA. They will
need to continue to find support above or in the region of the 200-day MA if
the medium-term upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.
Compagnie Financiere Richemont found support
in the region of the MA two weeks ago and is rallying. Nike
has lost momentum somewhat and looks susceptible to some additional mean reversion.
In
the supermarkets sector, Wal-Mart found
support in the region of the 200-day MA late last month and has rallied back
to test the 2008 peak. A sustained move below $58 would now be required to question
medium-term scope for additional upside. Tesco
is testing the lower side of its nearly five-month range and a clear upward
dynamic is required to check potential for some additional downside.
In
the mining sector, both BHP Billiton and
Rio Tinto dropped back to test their respective
2011 lows and bounced impressively today. Sustained moves below last week's
lows will be required to question potential for additional upside.
In
the compressed gases sector, Air Liquide,
Linde and Praxair
have returned to test their respective MAs and appear to have found at least
short-term support.
In
the energy sector, Exxon Mobil has paused
in the region of its 200-day and the lower side of the five-month trading range.
Royal Dutch Shell pulled back sharply
over the last month and is now testing the three-year uptrend.
In
the Industrials sector, Siemens and Emerson
Electric encountered resistance in the region of their respective 200-day
MAs from late last year and will need to sustain moves above them to suggest
a return to medium-term demand dominance. Intertek
Group has lost upward momentum since March in at least a partial unwind
of the overbought condition relative to the 200-day MA. A sustained move below
it would be required to question medium-term potential for additional upside.
In
conclusion, there are tentative signs that the majority of the Autonomies are
finding support in the region of their 200-day MAs. Provided they continue to
find support in the region of their trend means, the medium-term upside can
continue to be given the benefit of the doubt. Some have experienced deeper
reactions and will now need to demonstrate support building before they can
support moves to reassert medium-term demand dominance.