The Chart Seminar
Eoin Treacy's view The format of The Chart Seminar is workshop oriented which means that every
one is different because of market circumstances and the depth and experience
among delegates. This occasion was no different with people attending from 8
different countries and from as far afield as the USA and Australia.
Gold
and precious metals were by far the most popular topics among delegates. US
Treasuries were also a major topic of conversation. We talked at length about
the Dow/Gold ratio and its implications. The S&P 500, China, India, industrial
resources, rare earth metals, fertilisers, major miners, gold shares and oil
companies as well as a number of currencies interested delegates. Consumer related
shares and leading multinationals offered some of the most consistent trends
among the hundreds of charts we examined.
Sometimes
it is also interesting to note what was not requested. For example while we
looked at a number of energy related charts, no one asked for oil. Likewise,
while we talked at length about China and India, they were the only Asian charts
requested. While all delegates were interested in the debt of European countries,
no one asked to see the equity indices of those same countries. For a seminar
held in the UK, it is notable that no one asked for either the FTSE-100 or British
Pound.
When
we ruminate on these developments, they are not so surprising. We have endured
a highly uncertain investment environment over the last few months. US Treasuries
and gold outperformed and are notable for the perception that they offer a safe
haven. Equity markets, generally, have been notable for their volatility. The
wide swings experienced have unnerved investors to such an extent that safety
is often preferred to capital appreciation.
The fundamental
statistics tables below confirm that equity markets are not expensive by historical
standards. Chart action has been constructive over the last month. The fact
that no one asked to see these indices suggests investors are not heavily long.
Provided they can hold the majority of last month's rally on the next pullback
the upside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.
Asia
remains the centre of global growth. Young people are growing up and hitting
the peak consumption years of their lives. At the drinks reception on Friday
evening I was asked about my recent trip to China. As part of the conversation
I mentioned Hong Kong listed Hengan International.
It is the largest producer of sanitary towels and diapers in China. While the
former might be a mature market, diapers is a growth sector in China. They have
previously been too expensive for normal families but this is changing. The
share has been consolidating for the last year but has held its progression
higher reaction lows. A sustained move below HK$55 would be required to question
medium-term scope for additional upside.
A point
made by two American delegates was the problem posed in gaining access to some
of the instruments discussed in Fullermoney such as Blackrock
World Mining Trust. Most large brokers should be able to deal in international
shares and funds but we accept that this is sometimes a headache from a filing
perspective and the SEC.
Most
US resources or materials funds have heavy weightings of energy companies. For
example the RS Global Natural Resources Fund
has a similar pattern to the Blackrock World Mining Trust but is heavily weighted
by energy companies rather than industrial metal miners. If subscribers know
of US equivalents of funds holding the three major iron-ore producers BHP Billiton,
Rio Tinto and Vale, I would be happy to add them to the Chart Library.