The Equity View: Market Meltdown Creates Opportunities in "Recession-Resistant" Equities
Comment of the Day

August 10 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

The Equity View: Market Meltdown Creates Opportunities in "Recession-Resistant" Equities

My thanks to RiverFront for this informative report. It is posted in the Subscriber's Area but here is a brief sample:
We were able to find stocks within our portfolio holdings with valuations that are currently pricing in lower future growth than they did during the last recession, a pretty pessimistic assumption, in our opinion. Not surprisingly, most of these companies also have strong balance sheets, and many tend to have lower volatility and/or pay healthy dividends as well, all in keeping with our "fire-resistant" stock theme. Our holding that meet this criteria include the following:

David Fuller's view It is an interesting list of eight stocks, three of which have been reviewed by Eoin recently: Apple, McDonalds and IBM.

Would I buy any of these growth stocks today, or Pfizer for its current dividend yield of 4.61%? Not yet because this is a bear market and therefore even the most successful companies are subject to indiscriminate selling.

However, this is a very good time to be thinking analytically about one's next share purchases. Remember, wealth is created in down markets and realised in up markets.

If you lightened some equity positions earlier in the year or late last year when a number of markets were clearly overextended relative to their rising 200-day MAs (always our preferred time for taking profits), well done.

If you held your equity positions as a long-term investor, but also retained or accumulated some cash reserves for the next really good buying opportunity, well done.

The media will focus on economic problems but equity investors buy stocks, not economies. If Fullermoney is right in saying that this is a bear market, then we will be 'spoiled for choice' and probably before the year is over.

In the latter stages of every bear market that I have studied since the mid-1960s, the best performers in the next up cycle usually bottom before their main market indices, or at least coincidentally, and show early signs of base formation development and relative strength.

They are the shares which are believed to have the best prospects in the eyes of successful and experienced investors. The early leaders in a post bear market recovery usually retain their relative strength, often well into the latter stages of the bull market which follows every bear trend.

You can see this in the Chart Library by looking at early leaders following the 2008 crash. Many were completing base formations shortly after Wall Street's main indices reached their March 2009 lows. For an example, see Indonesia in the chart review below.

None of us can prevent bear markets from occurring, but as investors we can benefit from the buying opportunities which they create.

(See also yesterday's and Monday's stock market comments.)

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