The Europe Stoxx 600
Eoin Treacy's view This
index is a broad measure of equity market performance across Europe, representing
a geographical rather than political or currency grouping. As such it includes
companies from the UK, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway as well as the Eurozone
countries. In comparing its performance to the broad Euro Stoxx Index of 298
shares, the outperformance of the pan European index over the last year highlights
the comparative advantage of companies less exposed to the Eurozone's travails.
I thought it might be interesting to look at the ratio of these indices in order
to gauge if this is likely to remain the case.
The
Europe Stoxx 600 Index / Euro Stoxx Index ratio
trended consistently higher between 2008 and mid-2012 as the Eurozone in particular
grappled with a deep recession. However, the ratio has lost momentum over the
last year as the intensity of the issues facing the currency union abated; suggesting
the indices are likely to at least perform in line.
In
absolute terms, The Europe Stoxx broke
out to new 4-year highs in April but pulled back sharply between May and late
June. It then rallied impressively to retest the high and pulled back to test
the region of the 200-day MA by late August. The Index has now returned to retest
the 310 region for a third time and a sustained move below the 200-day MA would
be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. The Euro
Stoxx Index has a broadly similar pattern but has not yet broken above the
psychological 300 level.
I
performed a High/Low filter in
the Chart Library this morning looking for European shares moving to new highs
and therefore leading the wider market. Here is a link
detailing how to perform your own filter searches using the Chart Library.
Among
the Autonomies, in the automotive sector BMW
broke emphatically out of what has been an almost two-year consolidation. In
advertising WPP has broken up out of the
most recent step in what remains a steep but consistent advance. In the industrial
sector Siemens found support last week
in the region of the 200-day MA and rallied to post new two-year highs. In the
quality control segment Intertek Group
is hitting new 3-month highs as it continues to rebound from the region of the
200-day MA. In the retail sector H&M
and Inditex have both returned to test
the upper sides of their respective ranges.
The
Autonomies are also represented among companies hitting new lows with Reckitt
Benckiser and Unilever in the consumer
staples sector having fallen back to test the region of their respective 200-day
MA where they appear to have found at least short-term support.
Also
in the consumer sector Beiersdorf has
returned to test the region of the 200-day MA and has at least paused. The UK's
Home Retail Group on the other hand has
been forming a first step above its yearlong base since April and broke out
to new two-year highs today.
At
The Chart Seminar in May, a Swiss delegate who has substantial property interests
expressed anxiety at how high the price of residential and commercial property
had soared and suggested that it represented a bubble. This came to mind when
seeing PSP Swiss Property in the list
of companies making new 12-month lows.
The
share bottomed in early 2009 and trended persistently higher, finding support
in the region of the 200-day MA on successive occasions, until June this year.
It failed to hold the breakout to new highs in May and dropped to test the lower
side of what has been a 12-month range. It encountered resistance in the region
of the 200-day MA in July and dropped to new lows yesterday. The share has steadied
today but a sustained move above CHF85 will be required to question top formation
characteristics.
I
reviewed a number of European steel companies in the Comment of the Day on August
14 th and some of these companies are likely to benefit as the Chinese economy
returns to a more expansionary trajectory. Voestalpine
broke successfully above €30 in August and continues to range with an upward
bias. Vallourec ranged with an upward bias
from mid-2012 and broke successfully above €44 in August. A sustained move
below that level would be required to question medium-term scope for additional
upside. Arcelor Mittal is testing its recent
highs and looks more likely than not to sustain an upward break.
The
resources sector has been among the most unloved this year so it is notable
that both Glencore and Anglo
American have posted new three-month highs in the last week and have completely
unwound .their respective overextensions relative to their trend means. Boliden
broke successfully back above its 200-day MA last week. Eramet
trended lower for much of the year but found support from July and broke out
to new three-month highs today.
It
is also noteworthy that mining and excavation machinery manufacturer Atlas
Copco continues to hold a broad upward bias within what has been an almost
three-year consolidation and is now testing its peak following an impressive
rebound since July.
The
commonality of relative strength across the steel, mining, machinery and industrial
sectors suggests that perceptions of the potential for growth in the global
economy are improving which should be positive for stock markets generally.