The Great Greek Derby
Comment of the Day

June 14 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

The Great Greek Derby

Thanks to Lloyds Bank for this interesting report covering the possible outcomes from Sunday's Greek election. It is posted without further comment but here is a section from the conclusion:
For the first time in decades, the election outcome is too close to call. New Democracy continues to have the upper hand and hence is marginally more likely to win. However, Syriza has developed a dynamism that cannot be ignored despite

numerous mistakes from its party members (e.g. comments on utilizing Greek bank deposits for growth pushed a c. €10-15bn outflow since early May).

A possible Euro exit could become the main market scenario on a possible Syriza win. However, such a decision will not be taken lightly by the new government and hence the uncertainty will carry on. Even if Tsipras' administration makes this decision, a referendum should be considered as the most likely avenue to rubber stamp the public's intention. However, according to the opinion polls the public remains strongly in favour of the euro membership even during these tough times.

Regardless of the Greek election outcome, it is evident that the Eurozone has to lay a specific path to a banking union, fiscal union and eventually a political union. The 28/29th EU summit could prove the decisive meeting for the future of the Euro area as the pressure on Merkel et al to deliver is mounting. Project bonds, EIB recapitalization, the inauguration of a Eurozone deposit guarantee scheme and the creation of a common bank supervisory authority should be considered as the immediate steps to ‘calm' the markets. The ‘muddle through' approach has clearly failed as pressure on Spain intensifies and Italian yields have come under the spotlight.


Eoin Treacy's view Gold mining shares were among the worst performers globally from early March when the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index completed a Type-3 top as taught at The Chart Seminar. The Index had developed a short-term oversold condition by mid-May and has rallied to at least partially unwind it over the last month. A sustained move above 500 will be required to confirm a return to medium-term demand dominance. In the short-term, the Index will need to find support above the recent lows on the next pullback if the benefit of the doubt is to continue to be given to the upside. (Also see Comment of the Day on April 30th).

Yamana Gold found support in the region of the upper side of the underlying range in May and has rallied impressively over the last month. A sustained move below the $13 would now be required to question medium-term scope for continued higher to lateral ranging.

Compania de Minas Buenaventura has been mostly rangebound, albeit with a mild downward bias for more than a year. A sustained move above last week's high near $42.70 will be required to signal a return to medium-term demand dominance.

Randgold Resources, New Gold, Newmont Mining, IAMGold, GoldCorp, AngloGold Ashanti, Agnico-Eagle, Harmony Gold and Gold Fields have at least partially unwound their respective overextensions relative to the 200-day MA. Demand returning at a progressively higher level on the next pullback will be required to bolster confidence. Eldorado Gold, Coeur d'Alene, Kinross and Hecla Mining have posted some of the smaller rallies relative to the size of their respective declines but otherwise share similar patterns.

Barrick Gold pulled back rather sharply last week and will need to find support above $35 on the current reaction to suggest a return to demand dominance beyond the short term.

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