The India report
Comment of the Day

August 17 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

The India report

Thanks to Deepak Lalwani for his report which this week focuses on India's economic potential. Here is a section
India's GDP should rise 5 fold to $ 5 trillion by 2030. This journey of catch up will create huge business opportunities in almost all sectors of the economy as India modernises. Infrastructure, banking and financial intermediation, autos, pharmaceuticals, capital goods, consumer goods, construction and metals are only some of the sectors to benefit. Morgan Stanley, the U.S. investment bank, recently stated that India may become the world's fastest growing major economy, overtaking China's growth rate by 2015. They also said that India will add 136 million workers (this is more than the current combined population of the UK and France) by 2020 compared with 23 million that China will add. India's new workers should help boost consumption and aid economic growth. Washington based The Inter-American Bank (IADB) in a recent report said that by 2040 the economic output from China and India together is expected to be up to 10 times larger than Europe's total GDP.

Eoin Treacy's view The Sensex continues to hold in the region of 18,000 but needs to improve on that performance to indicate demand has regained the upper hand beyond the short term. The Sensex Index is quite limited in the number of shares it represents and is being outperformed in no uncertain terms by the Bombay 500. The wider index has so far held the break about 7000 and now has ample room to consolidate the breakout above that level.

Consumer focused sectors have been among the best performer in the Indian stock market, not least autos, healthcare, banks, fast moving consumer goods, consumer durables. However, these are all now somewhat overextended relative to their 200-day MAs and some reversion towards the mean is becoming increasingly likely.

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