The London Chart Seminar May 19th & 20th
Eoin Treacy's view The
recent London event was attended by delegates from 8 different countries - the
UK, Australia, USA, Ireland, Finland, Belgium, UAE and Sweden. The conversation
was quite stock specific but a common interest in the rise of the global middle
class was evident. I will write about this topic tomorrow.
Discussions
on the Euro sovereign crisis, uranium miners, lithium, rare earth metals, the
Yen, the Dollar, Treasury yields and India all featured within the two days.
Delegates
at both the London and Sydney seminars expressed an interest in uranium shares.
Confidence has taken a blow since the Fukushima accidents, the uranium
price pulled back but is currently showing relative strength and uranium miners
have pulled back sharply. This article
from Bloomberg suggests that the initial panicky response to the crisis is subsiding
and that China and India's nuclear expansion plans remain unchanged. Here is
a section:
None
of that reduces the power requirements of the world's fastest-growing economies.
China's economy will probably expand 9.5 percent this year, according to the
median of 11 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. India's gross domestic product
may grow as much as 8.5 percent in the current fiscal year, Chakravarthy Rangarajan,
chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, said on May 3.
"Fukushima has made us pause and rethink some of our projects," Xu
Yuming, vice secretary general of the Nuclear Energy Association, said in a
May 12 interview in Beijing. "Of course, the overall plan won't be changed.
China faces power shortages and we need to change our energy mix. To resolve
these issues, we must develop nuclear."
Even
if Japan develops half of its proposed 19 gigawatts of nuclear power this decade,
the country, together with China, India, Russia and South Korea, will add a
combined 160 gigawatts by 2020, according to Bloomberg data based on figures
from the World Nuclear Association, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., the Federation
of Electric Power Companies of Japan and South Korea's economy ministry.
Shares
such as Paladin Energy, Denison
Mines and Bannerman Resources among
others have pulled back to test their tsunami lows and have at least paused.
Clear upward dynamics would confirm the return of demand in the current area.
The Japanese crisis has probably delayed the evolution of a medium-term bull
market but is unlikely to have derailed it.
Delegates
from both within the Eurozone and outside expressed a great deal of anxiety
regarding the currency union and its sovereign debt crisis. Despite considerable
negative sentiment towards peripheral debt and prospects for the currency, the
Euro is still a comparatively firm currency compared to the US Dollar, Pound
and Yen, despite some recent weakness. However, this is not to belittle the
regions problems which remain of considerable concern.
Spreads
of Greek, Irish
and Portuguese debt over German bunds
remain on upward trajectories and CDS for the same countries reiterate the perceived
risk in such debt. Until recently, investors have spared Spain
and Italy from concerted selling pressure
but spreads over Bunds for both these countries look more likely than not to
trend higher.
Delegates
pointed out that any form of payment delay or in Jean Claude Juncker's words
"reprofiling" of Greek debt would be treated as a default which would
trigger CDS and result in the ECB refusing to accept such bonds as collateral.
This would put the currency under stress and necessitate a recapitalisation
of the ECB by its member states if outright quantitative easing were to be avoided.
(Also see David's comments above on the Eurozone).
I have
been arguing since at least March
7th that in a high price environment consumption efficiencies are a more
likely innovation than production efficiencies. Capital has been pouring into
battery research and development and Korean shares such as Samsung
SDI, LG Chem and Cheil
Industries are clear upside leaders which would be best bought following reactions.
Lithium
mining should be a beneficiary of increased demand for the element in battery
manufacture. Socieda Quimica Min de Chile,
FMC Corp and Rockwood
Holdings are among some of the best performers and while susceptible to
some consolidation and reversion towards the mean, they remain in relatively
consistent medium-term uptrends.