The Original Tigers
Eoin Treacy's view The ASEAN group of countries were among the best performers from their 2008
lows but had become quite overextended relative to their trend means earlier
this year and have since experienced their largest reactions in the course of
the medium-term bull market. They have spent the last few months ranging mostly
below their respective overhead top formations and more time is probably required
to build support and revive confidence.
Thailand
can be considered a representative example. The SET
Index rallied from 400 to test the 1994 peak between 2008 and April this year.
It has since pulled back and continues to range below 1500.
The
outperformance of some of Asia's high growth overshadowed their more developed
neighbours which have moved to positions of outperformance and are now breaking
out in absolute terms. Against a background of short-term overbought conditions
on many global stock markets this remains impressive considering the length
of time spent ranging, but some consolidation cannot be ruled out.
South
Korea pulled back sharply in 2011 and spent the last two years ranging mostly
below 2000. It broke successfully back above that level earlier this month and
a sustained move below 2025 would now be required to question medium-term upside
potential. The US and UK
listed iShares South Korea Index ETFs have broadly similar patterns.
Taiwan
experienced a similarly deep pullback in 2011 but has exhibited more of an upward
bias within its range since mid-2012. The Index moved to a new 2-year high today
and a break in the progression of higher reaction lows would be required to
question potential for additional upside. The banking
sector has outperformed for much of the year.
The
US listed Taiwan Fund trades at a discount
to NAV of almost 10%. It continues to rally towards its 2011 and 2007 peaks
near $20. While it is becoming increasingly overextended, a break in the progression
of higher reaction lows would be required to question medium-term upside potential.
Singapore
outperformed both South Korea and Taiwan from the late 2011 lows but caught
contagion from the wider ASEAN region from May and continues to range above
3000. A sustained move above 3300 would suggest a return to demand dominance
beyond the short term. The Singapore Financial
Index has held more of its previous advance and continues to consolidate mostly
above the 2011 peaks near 800. The US listed
iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund has encountered resistance near $14 on a number
of occasions since 2011. It has returned to test that level once more but will
to hold a breakout to reconfirm medium-term demand dominance.
Hong
Kong's Hang Seng has been confined to
a volatile range since late 2010; encountering resistance near 24,000 on successive
occasions. It has returned to retest that area but will need to sustain a move
above it to suggest a return to medium-term demand dominance. The UK listed
Invesco Perpetual Hong Kong & China Fund has a management fee of 1.5%
and a front end load of 5%. It consolidated above the 2007 and 2011 highs from
March and broke out in August.