The Other January Effect: Evidence Against Market Efficiency?
Comment of the Day

March 02 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

The Other January Effect: Evidence Against Market Efficiency?

Thanks to a subscriber for this academic report by Ben R. Marshall and Nuttawat Visaltanachoti at Massey University. It is posted without further comment but here is the abstract

Eoin Treacy's view The Other January Effect (OJE), which suggests positive (negative) equity market returns in January predict positive (negative) returns in the following 11 months of the year, underperforms a simple buy-and-hold strategy before and after risk-adjustment. Even the best modified OJE strategy, which benefits from several ex-post adjustments, does not generate statistically or economically significant excess returns. When the OJE is tested with a method that is consistent with investor experience it is clear the OJE is no more profitable than an 11-month strategy that uses November or December as the conditioning month.

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