The paralysis has no quick fix. Last night (April 4), in an effort to lift spirits, France’s presidential debate organizers decided to trot out all 11 eligible candidates for the second televised debate, rather than just the top five. The barrage of small candidates on stage left each with “no room to develop an idea,” and voters no time “to exercise their judgment,” one critic (link in French) argued. “Does this really help the undecided to form an opinion?” another asked (link in French).
All the better for France’s far-right wing. Voter turnout in France (80% in 2012) has long upstaged that of neighboring Germany (71%), the UK (66%) and Switzerland (47%). But as that number drops in France’s multi-round system, the odds of a far-right win creep up.

That’s because fervent support for Le Pen in the first round will likely carry over to votes for her in the second. But candidates with more tepid support, including centrist Emmanuel Macron, conservative François Fillon, and socialist Benoît Hamon, may suffer if non-Le Pen voters abstain (paywall) in the second round. Right now, Le Pen and Macron are neck-and-neck in French polls for the first round.

The predicament was similar in 2002, when candidate Jacques Chirac’s famous slogan (link in French) “Vote for the Crook, not the Fascist” helped him secure a landslide victory against Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, in the second round. This time, voters may have had their fill of crooks and fascists both.

Eoin Treacy's view

Last night my 11-year old asked me what does ennui mean? My French classes from secondary school came roaring back with Mrs. O’Donoghue joking that ennui was roughly translated into boredom but the reaction of the class provided a much better definition than any she could come up with. Here is what Google comes up with “mid 18th century: French, from Latin mihi in odio est ‘it is hateful to me.’ and “a feeling of listlessness and dissatisfaction arising from a lack of occupation or excitement.” Ennui is a problem for entrenched politicians when they face a strident minority willing to vote. 

The problem for the status quo in any country is when people do not feel served by the political apparatus. That is most especially true when they see no meaningful change between different governments regardless of what their political skew might me. France’s strong unions and vested interests have created a system which ensures a 35-hour work week for protected workers but high unemployment in other parts of the economy because the cost of hiring a new employee is so high. Little wonder then that many people feel detached from political life. 

I also think that is one of the primary challenges facing the EU. So many decisions are made without the direct input of the electorate that it seems a distant overseer. That also allows politicians to take credit for what the EU succeeds at and blame it for everything else. The lack of democracy at the European Commission exacerbates that condition. 

The Nationalist Front has collaborationist roots which Marine Le Pen has worked hard to obviate yet the memory of the Vichy regime will be hard to overcome among the older part of France’s electorate. However elections are about votes and the National Front has a strong core of voters. In order for ennui to work in her favour Le Pen would need to probably come in second in the first round. That would mean fewer voters would be enticed to vote in the second round which would lend her an advantage among her own supporters who would be campaigning hard to do better. 

French government bonds are among the primary beneficiary of ECB buying. With such uncertainty surround the election, the Greek bailout and eventual write-down as well as the German election, the yield has risen from a low in July near 0.1 to around 1%. It is currently testing the lower side of a three-month range. This area represents a potential area of resistance but a clear upward dynamic will be required to confirm a return to supply dominance. 

The CAC Index bears a strong resemblance to the Euro Stoxx and is heavily weighted by internationally oriented companies. It is now testing it 2015 highs. The benefit of the doubt can continue to be given to the upside provided it holds the progression of higher reaction lows, currently near 4900. .