We believe the US economic expansion is on a sustainable growth path. As the expansion begins its fifth year, we continue to favour certain indicators, not only as gauges of sustainable growth, but also for clues that the economy may be faltering. Comparing the conditions in 2009 with the most recent data shows that nearly all of our requirements have been fulfilled, but there is still room for improvement for many of them. Consequently, we continue to expect economic growth to be below its post-WWII average and the Federal Reserve - which meets this week - to continue its monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage backed securities (QE3) even if it slightly reduces the amount of those purchases

David Fuller's view This is a very interesting study and by delaying tapering, Fed Chairman Bernanke has probably checked the rise in long-dated government bond yields (weekly & daily) for at least a few weeks and possibly months.