The Weekly View: Eerily Calm Ahead of the Election Storm
Comment of the Day

August 22 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

The Weekly View: Eerily Calm Ahead of the Election Storm

My thanks to Rod Smyth, Bill Ryder and Ken Liu of RiverFront for their excellent market letter. Here is the opening:
Daily US stock market volatility has fallen to its lowest levels since the Lehman crisis (see chart below) as most global stock markets continue to grind higher. Medium term (6 to 12 months), we regard both the higher market levels and the lower volatility as bullish. In a world still filled with uncertainties, we regard this summer's relative calm as a sign that, despite unrelenting outflows from stock funds, stocks are climbing a "wall of worry."

David Fuller's view This is a good summary from The Weekly View and I commend it to you for both their thoughts on market timing and comments on the election. The latter are all the more interesting because they are not "weighing in on the different party ideologies."

There is also a must-see graph from Ned Davis Research, showing the average DJIA stock market pattern for all presidential elections since 1900, together with the separate results when the incumbent party wins and also when the incumbent party loses. I have seen this graph before and the disparity has been increased by this century's additional data. Check it out.

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